Virginia GOP looks for rebound

Republican Robert F. McDonnell’s victory in the Virginia governor’s race in November was one of the first signs of political trouble for President Obama and the Democrats. Virginia Republicans are now targeting a number of vulnerable House Democrats as the GOP holds its primary Tuesday.

Voters will choose from among a crowded slate of 19 contenders for the GOP nominations up for grabs Tuesday in five congressional districts: the 1st, 2nd, 5th, 8th and 11th.

The most hotly contested race - at least in terms of sheer numbers of candidates - is in the 5th, the state’s rural Southside, where Rep. Tom Perriello won a squeaker for his first term as a Democratic congressman in 2008.

Seven candidates, including state Sen. Robert Hurt of Pittsylvania, are vying for the GOP nod to take on Mr. Perriello, who backed the Obama health care law.

Mr. Hurt, the “establishment” candidate with name recognition and GOP backing in Washington and Richmond, could benefit from the other candidates splitting the “outsider” vote. In one sign of the potentially divisive impact the insider-outsider debate could have on the GOP this fall, one of Mr. Hurt’s opponents has threatened a third-party run if Mr. Hurt wins the nomination.

Other GOP leaders with something to lose Tuesday include Mr. McDonnell, who endorsed car dealer and friend E. Scott Rigell in the Virginia Beach-Hampton Roads area’s 2nd District race.

Mr. Rigell is a political newcomer facing a field of five other candidates - including several veterans - looking to advance to a fall showdown with another freshman Democrat, Rep. Glenn Nye.

Mr. Nye opposed Obamacare, but that may not make much difference among the district’s conservative military voters and “tea party” activists.

One of the GOP contenders, Ben Loyola, a Navy veteran and defense contractor, said the 2nd District race is a showdown between the establishment and the tea party. But a Rand Paul-style surprise in the 2nd would be a huge upset - one recent poll showed Mr. Rigell leading the field by more than 30 points.

The GOP also is counting on one of the two Republicans - businessman Keith Fimian and Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity - squaring off in Northern Virginia’s 11th District to tackle another Democrat who could be vulnerable, Rep. Gerald E. Connolly.

That race has been among the hardest fought, with Mr. Fimian accusing Mr. Herrity, a county supervisor, of raising tax rates, and Mr. Herrity questioning his opponent’s ethics and making an issue of fines leveled against Mr. Fimian’s business.

Another hotly contested Northern Virginia race will determine whether Matthew B. Berry or J. Patrick Murray faces an uphill battle this fall to unseat longtime Rep. James P. Moran, a Democrat, in the 8th District.

The other race Tuesday features a long-shot bid from tea party candidate Catherine T. Crabill, who is running behind incumbent Rep. Rob Wittman in the Williamsburg-Newport News area’s 1st District.

George Mason University public policy professor Mark Rozell predicted Monday that turnout would be in the single digits - a typical turnout for a midterm election - despite the infusion of energy and interest created by the tea party activists and candidates.

“It’s going to be interesting to see, but it looks like the GOP establishment candidates have the edge,” he told The Washington Times. He said the movement had clearly surpassed expectations in other states, but may have suffered in Virginia from its own grass-roots nature.

“These new political movements, they tend to break down into factions, and I think that’s what we’re seeing in some of these Virginia races.”