Sarkozy faces losses in regional vote

PARIS | Nicolas Sarkozy is looking politically lonely in his presidential palace.

Voters hit by France’s worst recession since World War II are fearing for their jobs, and are worried and conflicted about how Islamic veils and immigrant culture fit in their nation today.

Regional elections that began Sunday give the voters a chance to voice their frustration, and are likely to leave opposition Socialists in charge of nearly every regional government in France. The left is even dreaming of a “grand slam”: control over all 26 regions.

This will be the last ballot-box test for Mr. Sarkozy’s party ahead of the 2012 presidential election.

The usually confident and charismatic Mr. Sarkozy, though he’s not on the ballot, is likely to emerge the big loser in this vote, halfway through a presidential term he vowed would transform his country into an economic powerhouse.

Mr. Sarkozy “thought he could do anything at any moment, all the time, and he figured out that it is not true,” said Daniel Cohn-Bendit, the leader of Europe Ecologie, a green-minded party shaping up to be the decisive third force in the regional elections.

The landscape is already bleak for Mr. Sarkozy’s conservative UMP party going into the vote. The president’s approval ratings are below 40 percent — among the lowest since his election in 2007 — and Socialists secured a stunning 20 of 22 regions on mainland France in the last elections in 2004.

This time, the UMP had been hoping to win a few regions back, but polls and electoral math suggest it will fail.

Voters have used all past regional elections to punish the party in power. Plus, Mr. Sarkozy’s supporters are showing little interest in the campaign, according to polls. So those voters who do show up are likely to do so to express discontent with what he’s doing — or not doing — for France.

“Employment is the No. 1 issue,” said Jerome Fourquet of the Ifop polling agency. Joblessness is at its highest level in a decade, over 10 percent, and the effects of recession are still pinching industries from car making to hotels.

Purchasing power, which Mr. Sarkozy promised to boost when he was elected in 2007, “has not been erased from the notebook of grievances of French people,” Mr. Fourquet said. “We see the multiplication of social conflicts,” such as workers locking up managers to protest layoffs.

Another big factor may be French voters’ awakening concern about global warming.

In Sunday’s first round voting, polls indicate that candidates from Mr. Sarkozy’s UMP would take an overall lead nationwide, followed by the Socialists and Europe Ecologie, whose popularity has grown over the past year on its pledges to take better care of the environment.

In the decisive runoff March 21, however, the Socialists and Europe Ecologie and smaller leftist parties are expected to join forces in some regions, lifting the left to a major triumph.

A celebratory mood infused Europe Ecologie’s last major rally Wednesday night. “Without us, the Socialists won’t win any region,” Mr. Cohn-Bendit said.

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