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“A month of Democrat hubris seems to have spurred West Virginians to be reminded that they are in control, rather than the politicians,” she added.

But Mr. Manchin retains high favorability ratings among state residents and is a formidable campaigner. Democratic political strategist Joe Trippi said the governor can win by focusing on state rather than national issues, even in a year when other top Democrats are struggling badly.

Manchin is popular,” Mr. Trippi told Fox News. “If he can make [the election] local, he can win the seat.”