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Scott Watkins, a senior consultant with Anderson Economic Group in Lansing, Mich., predicted that banks and retailers will notice a difference in their share of the pie, but consumers will likely end up paying virtually the same amount, whether in swipe fees or new fees that the banks add to compensate for the loss.

At the store, Mr. Watkins doesn’t expect merchants to immediately cut prices.

“You’re probably not going to see prices go down,” he said. “But it might allow for a slower increase of prices in the future.”