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Mr. Aristide’s return has been a principal demand of his Fanmi Lavalas party, which has been barred from recent elections, including November’s presidential vote, on technical grounds.

The head of Lavalas’ executive council, Maryse Narcisse, said Mr. Aristide does not wish to re-enter Haitian politics. “He only wishes to help Haiti in the field of education,” she said, echoing Mr. Aristide’s statement from South Africa last month.

Mr. Carey said that ultimately, Mr. Aristide is likely to face a situation much like Mr. Duvalier’s: living in Haiti with “heavy security and with the threat of lawsuits.”

The 59-year-old Mr. Duvalier faces a judge’s investigation into allegations of corruption and human rights abuses during his 15-year dictatorship. He rarely leaves his guarded compound.