Despite Akin, GOP’s odds improve on taking Senate

Republicans’ chances of gaining control of the Senate are improving, notwithstanding Missouri Senate candidate W. Todd Akin’s self-inflicted calamity.

Since Aug. 1, the prospects for Republican Senate candidates have improved in five hotly contested states while Democrats’ fortunes have risen in three races, including Missouri, according to Real Clear Politics.

That is part of the reason why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, predicted Monday that the GOP could win back the Senate even if Mr. Akin loses his race.

“We can take the Senate without Missouri,” Mr. McConnell said at a Gannett newsmaker session in Tampa, Fla., ahead of the Republican National Convention. “It’d be a lot easier to take it with Missouri.”

Democrats and independents who align with them now control the Senate, 53-47. But in the 33 Senate seats up for election in November, Democrats must defend 21, plus the two independents’ seats in Vermont and Connecticut.

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Republicans must defend 10 seats.

As of Monday, Real Clear Politics’ projections based on the latest polling show that Republicans would pick up four Senate seats — in Wisconsin, North Dakota, Nebraska and Montana.

Democrats would pick up a seat in Maine held by retiring Sen. Olympia J. Snowe, a Republican. The result would be a net gain of three seats for Republicans and a 50-50 balance in the Senate. Ties would be broken by the person elected as vice president, either Democrat Joseph R. Biden or Republican Paul Ryan.

“What’s tough for the Democrats is there are so many seats they’re defending,” said Carl Tobias, a professor at the University of Richmond School of Law. “I don’t think it will be more than 52-48 either way.”

In Virginia, the race between Republican George Allen and Democrat Tim Kaine is as close as ever, Real Clear Politics’ average of polls shows Mr. Kaine leading by 0.6 percentage points — a statistical tie.

Since early July, neither candidate has been able to open up a lead of more than 2 percentage points in surveys.

“They’re both former governors, so they both have pretty broad name recognition,” Mr. Tobias said. “A lot will depend on what happens at the top of the ticket, and whether there are people who will split votes. The Republicans have done a pretty good job of tying Kaine to the president, and I think that has kept him from pulling away.”

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney have been campaigning relentlessly in Virginia, which Mr. Obama won four years ago.

The latest poll in Virginia, conducted by Rasmussen on Thursday, showed a tie at 47 percent each. The Real Clear Politics average of state polls gives Mr. Obama the slightest of advantages, by 0.6 percentage points.

In a survey by Purple Strategies of Alexandria in mid-August, 52 percent of Virginia voters polled said they disapproved of the president’s job performance, while 42 percent said they approved.

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