Iran’s Ahmadinejad politically wounded but wily
But Mr. Ahmadinejad always seems to catch a second wind on the road. It’s at home where his political wounds are most visible, and his expiration date already is factored into high-stakes calculations.
The one-time favored son of Iran’s theocracy is now limping into his last year in office sharply weakened and in the unexpected position as an outcast among hard-liners.
“It may be hard to believe for those who just pay attention to the theatrics of Iranian politics, but Ahmadinejad has emerged - somewhat by process of elimination - as something of a moderate in relation to the archconservatives in the ruling system,” said Salman Shaikh, director of the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar.
“The reformers and opposition have been crushed or silenced,” he added. “That leaves Ahmadinejad and his big political ego.”
Mr. Ahmadinejad lost a power struggle last year with the ruling system, which had helped him rise from the relative obscurity of Tehran's city hall seven years ago and stood by his side in 2009 amid the chaos from his disputed re-election.
Yet he still has some political ammunition in reserve. How he uses it will set the tone for Iran’s internal policymaking as it struggles with big questions: how far to bend in the nuclear standoff with the West, how to counter deepening sanctions and what to do with the combative and ambitious Mr. Ahmadinejad after the June 2013 elections to pick his successor.
A ‘lame duck’
A pivotal element, analysts say, is whether Mr. Ahmadinejad will revive his challenges to the alpha-omega powers of supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his backers, led by the Revolutionary Guard.
The feud began last year with Mr. Ahmadinejad’s drive to give the presidency more sway over key policies, such as intelligence and foreign affairs - which are firmly in the hands of the clerics.
That fight is lost. He can still, however, battle for a political ally on the presidential ballot next year, which will be Mr. Ahmadinejad’s last in office because of term limits.
He also can attempt to nudge Iran’s position in the nuclear talks with the U.S. and other world powers, which are scheduled to resume next week in Moscow.
Mr. Ahmadinejad is seen as possibly more open to deals with Washington that would accommodate both sides: allowing Iran to continue some level of uranium enrichment for reactor fuel, but giving more room for U.N. inspections.
The negotiations, however, are completely overseen by the ruling system. And it’s even possible, some analysts say, that Ayatollah Khamenei wants to avoid any possible breakthroughs with the West until Mr. Ahmadinejad is out of office - fearing he could use it to gain political mileage.