Who says Romney can’t win in the South?
The showdown between Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich over which candidate is the true “conservative alternative” to Mitt Romney was supposed to be the big story in Tuesday’s GOP contests in Alabama and Mississippi — but polls show the former Massachusetts governor is poised to rewrite the narrative that he can’t win in the Deep South.
Mr. Romney, a Mormon from a Northeast state, expected a degree of difficulty in the South — at one point, he acknowledged that the Alabama and Mississippi contests represented “an away game.” But polls in both states show Mr. Romney, Mr. Santorum and Mr. Gingrich running neck-and-neck, with Rep. Ron Paul of Texas bringing up the rear.
“I see a real close three-person race,” said Richard C. Fording, political science professor at the University of Alabama. “There is a scenario for Romney to win, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did. That would be a big symbolic victory for him. Symbolic in that at least he could claim he won a deep red state in the South.”
In addition to Kansas, the former senator from Pennsylvania has won caucuses in Iowa, Colorado, Minnesota and North Dakota, as well as primaries in Tennessee and Oklahoma and a nonbinding primary in Missouri.
Mr. Gingrich has won two Southern states, emerging victorious in South Carolina and Georgia, a state he represented in Congress for 20 years. The former House speaker predicted victory in Alabama and Mississippi, and suggested that he plans to stay in the race no matter what happens Tuesday.
Both men, though, have fallen well behind Mr. Romney in the overall delegate count. The former governor has collected more delegates than all of his rivals combined. The Romney camp has made the case that it is nearly impossible for another candidate to get the delegates needed to secure the nomination.
It’s a big enough lead that the Romney camp has decided the candidate has nothing more to gain from debating his rivals: a Romney spokesman announced Monday that the former Massachusetts governor is passing on next Monday’s GOP debate in Portland, Ore.
Sponsors, including The Washington Times, haven’t decided whether the debate will go on as scheduled, but since a Feb. 22 faceoff in Arizona, a CNN-sponsored debate in Georgia and a Politico-sponsored debate in California have also been scratched.
Many Republican insiders and political observers say the only realistic way left to block Mr. Romney is to trigger a floor fight at the Republican National Convention — a scenario that is possible if Mr. Romney comes up short of the 1,144 delegates needed to seal the nomination.
That would give conservatives another chance to unite behind one candidate.
Mr. Santorum talked about that prospect during an appearance Monday on NBC’s “Today.”
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