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“That makes sense, because polls show him with much better strength up there and it is a battleground state,” Mr. Whalen said. Plus, Mr. Romney has a powerful ally in freshman New Hampshire GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

“Maybe he ran for office in the wrong state,” Mr. Whalen quipped. “The positions he had in Massachusetts are coming back to bite him because he had to take liberal-to-moderate positions, because we are a moderate-to-liberal state.”

While winning the White House without winning at home is rare, losers in November often fail to win their home turf.

Al Gore lost Tennessee in 2000, and the loss cost him the presidency. The state’s 11 electoral votes that year would have been enough to win the White House. And over the past century eight other losers have also lost their home states.

“Candidates sometimes get out of sync with their home constituencies. Al Gore cut his teeth in Tennessee when it was still Democratic; by the time he ran for president, it had shifted to the Republican column,” Mr. Brand said.

“With Romney and Massachusetts, it’s unclear whether the candidate or the state has changed more, but again the fit no longer exists.”