The Nationals are better than their 19-22 record would indicate through the first quarter of the MLB season. The rebuilding squad has enjoyed a promising start despite some glaring mistakes and facing the toughest schedule in baseball.
Seven of Washington’s first 13 wins came against teams with winning records, including hard-fought bouts with the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers and the league-leading Atlanta Braves.
The Nationals’ opponents so far this season collectively boast a league-high .523 winning percentage. That added level of difficulty has some observers convinced Washington is underrated.
ESPN’s Relative Power Index ranks teams by combining their record, strength of schedule and the opposition’s strength of schedule. The Nationals have ranked as the 12th-best team in the majors based on the advanced metric.
The Nationals aren’t paying too much attention to those team-wide metrics. The emphasis from first-year manager Blake Butera has been on individual growth, highlighting competition on a game-to-game basis alongside personal goals.
Washington’s players have bought in.
“This group, what they’ve done all year to this point is they continue to fight,” Butera said after a loss to the Miami Marlins on Saturday. “They never feel like they’re out of it.”
The results just haven’t arrived yet. That could change in the near future.
Washington’s offense has been undeniable. The Nationals rank second in runs, third in stolen bases and eighth in OPS. Butera has encouraged a multi-faceted approach in the batter’s box and on the base paths.
Runners are urged to swipe a base when they can and stretch out scoring opportunities, like scoring from first on a double. The philosophy has shaped the Nationals’ rag-tag lineup — which is carried by All-Stars James Wood and C.J. Abrams — into one of the most exciting in the league.
Washington’s pitching staff is also exciting for opposing fans. The Nationals are the only team in the majors with sub-replacement level pitching, according to FanGraphs stats. The Nationals’ arms were worth -0.7 wins above replacement. The Houston Astros ranked second-to-last with 0.6 wins above replacement.
Butera and pitching coach Simon Matthews have openly experimented with the current roster of arms to mixed results. Starters Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas have shown slight improvements since the team started using an opener, allowing the journeyman duo to pitch in bulk relief.
But Washington still lacks a deep pool of major league-level relievers to help the process. The Nationals have already used 23 pitchers this season. Some have found moderate success: reliever Richard Lovelady has allowed just one run in his first nine appearances in Washington.
But, for the most part, Washington’s pitchers are still finding their stride. And Butera is trying to trust that process. It isn’t easy for Nationals fans. Washington lost on Saturday and Sunday after relievers Mitchell Parker and Gus Varland gave up multiple runs in disastrous eighth innings.
“The second he went out there, he didn’t have the stuff he’s had before; he didn’t execute,” Butera said after Parker earned the loss on Saturday. “We still love Mitch. He’s going to still get the ball in big spots. He’s going to continue to pitch for us. He has all the confidence in the world of our staff.”
There’s reason for optimism. Even with the stiff competition, Washington’s pitchers have shown marked improvement after a disastrous start. The group woke up on April 14 with a 6.21 ERA. They’ve lowered it to a rough, but not nauseating, 4.84 in the intervening month.
The pitching staff has been fighting an uphill battle with a lackluster defense behind them. The Nationals have allowed a league-leading 33 unearned runs thanks to 39 errors.
“We can’t lead the league in errors and expect to win,” Butera said last week.
Butera has since organized higher-intensity pregame fielding drills.
Each new tweak — from the use of openers to the spring training-like practices — brings the Nationals one step closer to shoring up their weaknesses.
The proverbial arrows are pointing upwards for Washington. The schedule gets easier as the season wears on — the Nationals have the 17th-ranked schedule for the remainder of the year. The pitching staff is slowly finding a rhythm. The offense has been constant throughout the campaign.
Washington entered Monday’s off day tied for second in the NL East, nine games behind Atlanta. The Nationals will look to take another step toward the .500 mark during a three-game series against the Reds, which begins in Cincinnati on Tuesday night.
• Liam Griffin can be reached at lgriffin@washingtontimes.com.
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