Departing with hope

Adm. Thomas Fargo was, in turn, optimistic, cautious and pessimistic as he looked back over nearly six years of coping with security issues in Asia, first as commander of the U.S. Pacific fleet and then as commanding officer of all U.S. armed forces in this region.

In a wide-ranging interview on the eve of his retirement yesterday, Adm. Fargo was upbeat about the surge of democracy in Asia, the working relations developed with other military leaders throughout the region, and the evolution of Japan as a mature ally contributing to Asia’s security.

He was cautious about maintaining peace between China and Taiwan, saying “miscalculation could occur on either side of the strait” that separates them, and wary about how China would use its rising power. He was guarded in assessing the future of the U.S. alliance with South Korea.

And the admiral, a submariner retiring after 35 years of service, contended the U.S. and its allies had made progress against terrorists, pirates and drug smugglers in Southeast Asia but had far to go: “We’ve taken a lot of these folks off the street, but we aren’t there yet by any stretch of the imagination.”

Asked about changes on his watch, Fargo put democracy in Asia at the top. “We’ve seen the emerging democracies mature and fledgling democracies take shape,” he said, citing 14 Asian elections in 2004.

The “most obvious,” he said, were the spring elections in Indonesia in which 87 percent of 147 million voters went to the polls to choose the nation’s first directly elected president, plus a parliament and local officials. The U.S. and other advanced nations are lucky to get out 50 percent of the voters.

Similarly, Adm. Fargo asserted, the Malaysian parliamentary election in March “was a vote for moderation. It was a vote that says democracy and Islam and prosperity can flourish together.” When democratic processes work, he said, “that strengthens governance.” He cited historical studies that “democracies don’t attack or fight other democracies.”

Next to democracy, the admiral said, he was pleased with professional relations developed with Asian and Pacific chiefs of defense at an annual gathering in Hawaii or in Asia, the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore each year, and his visits to 16 Asian nations, some of them several times.

A small but telling point: When he came to Hawaii in 1999, telephone talks with Asian defense chiefs were rare; recently Adm. Fargo has been talking with three or four a month.

Japan-U.S. security relations have become “really excellent,” he said. “We are very clearly seeing Japan mature in its security role.” Adm. Fargo credited Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi with developing Japan’s security posture and said that was likely to continue after Mr. Koizumi leaves office, perhaps in two years.

“Their evolution in their security architecture makes great sense based on the changes we’ve seen in the world,” the admiral said referring to globalization, the advance of China, and the hostility of North Korea.

In some contrast, Adm. Fargo was apprehensive about the Chinese, whose military capabilities will continue expanding. “I would hope that as they develop into a great power, and I think they will be a great power, that they will use all that comes with that status in a constructive way.”

“The question is how are they going to use their emerging status,” he said. “And we don’t know the answer to that.”

On Taiwan, over which China claims sovereignty, Adm. Fargo was equally apprehensive. He worried the Taiwanese government did not understand or believe the “Chinese red lines,” or markers could not be crossed, such as declaring independence, without provoking Chinese military action.

The admiral said Taiwanese opinion polls showed “the majority of the people in Taiwan are clearly in favor of the status quo,” meaning separation from mainland China but without a formal declaration of independence. The outcome of parliamentary elections in December reflected that view, he said.

Adm. Fargo did not agree with proposals, such as that of the Cato Institute, for withdrawing U.S. forces from South Korea. “I think we do need to be there,” he said, although in smaller numbers than in the immediate past.

The admiral agreed, however, that South Koreans, among whom anti-Americanism has become rampant, must choose whether to continue their security treaty with the United States — or see the alliance broken and the troops depart.

Richard Halloran is a free-lance writer and former New York Times correspondent based in Honolulu.