The political climate is changing fast in Nepal since the parliamentary parties and the Maoist revolutionaries became strange bedfellows last month after agreeing to topple the king and establish “total democracy.”
The tri-polar political conflict between monarchists, the parliamentary parties and the Maoist rebels has become bipolar, with monarchists on one side and republicans on the other. Analysts say the credit for this outcome goes, by default, to King Gyanendra.
“The polarization of politics was almost a foregone conclusion following the king’s Feb. 1 takeover” this year, said Lok Raj Baral, a retired professor of political science and Nepal’s former ambassador to India.
The 12-point Memorandum of Understanding signed Nov. 22 by the parties and the Maoists after long behind-the-scenes negotiations in New Delhi has left Nepal’s monarchy and its supporters becalmed and bewildered.
Maoists, parties converge
The most important aspect of the agreement is that the seven-party alliance accepted the Maoist demand to elect a Constituent Assembly in exchange for the Maoist commitment to multiparty democracy.
Baburam Bhattarai, the Maoist ideologue and No. 2 leader, told this writer in an interview published in The Washington Times in December 2002 that the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) had offered to drop its pursuit of a “people’s democracy” in favor of a “multiparty democracy” if the constitutional parties supported the Maoist demand for a Constituent Assembly to draft a new constitution.
The parliamentary parties, however, dismissed the idea of Maoists supporting the multiparty system and considered the idea of a Constituent Assembly inappropriate.
Forces to be idled
Three years later, Mr. Bhattarai has successfully sold his agenda to the parliamentary parties, a success he credits to the “objective situation prevailing in the country, as well as the foolish and arrogant steps of the king.”
Besides some understandings to build confidence, the 12-point Maoist agenda calls for a boycott of Feb. 8 municipal elections announced by King Gyanendra, and both the Maoists and the constitutional parties agree to put the Royal Nepalese Army and the Maoist People’s Liberation Army under the supervision of the United Nations or other neutral international agencies during the election of a Constituent Assembly.
Previously, the parties demanded that the Maoists lay down their arms.
The Maoists have agreed to participate in the “new political mainstream” that will emerge after the Constituent Assembly elections, even if it goes against their expectations.
The Memorandum of Understanding defined the destination — the Constituent Assembly as the only way to resolve the 10-year-old political conflict in Nepal — but the parties and Maoists remain divided over how to reach it.
No united front
Observers say the memorandum does not create a united front against the king, since it allows the signatories to go their own way to reach the destination of Constituent Assembly.
It is clear, however, that the Maoists want a republic, while the seven-party alliance would have no problem with monarchy, provided the king’s role is only ceremonial.
The accord between the constitutional parties and the Maoists was welcomed by most people and human-rights activists as a hopeful pointer toward a peaceful resolution of Nepal’s conflict.
India, the United States and Britain cautiously welcomed the accord, while the European community and the United Nations asked the Maoists to extend the cease-fire, which was to expire Dec. 2.
Robert Hugins, an official at the U.S. Embassy in Katmandu, said Washington “cautiously welcomed the new political understanding reached between mainstream parties and Maoists — the understanding underscored the urgency for the royal palace to reach out to the parties and achieve common understanding to restore democracy and peace in the country.”
India reacts cautiously
In New Delhi, an official in India’s Ministry of External Affairs also reacted cautiously to the 12-point accord between the parties and Maoists, saying: “India has, on the one hand, urged the institution of monarchy to work together with political parties, and on the other, called upon Maoists to abandon the path of violence, accept the discipline of multiparty democracy and work for a political settlement that contributes to political stability and economic prosperity of Nepal.”
Ignoring domestic and international pressure to reciprocate the unilateral Maoist cease-fire, King Gyanendra continued military offensives against the rebels and announced Feb. 8 elections in the country’s 58 municipalities, to be followed by parliamentary election in 2007. The king also issued a press-control ordinance and a code of conduct to control the activities of nongovernmental organizations.
Analysts say that to ward off pressure from the international community, which imposed an arms embargo on the Nepali royal regime, the king is playing his “China card,” using Nepal’s huge neighbor as a scarecrow to frighten Washington and New Delhi while appeasing China by restricting the movement of Tibetan refugees, refusing them travel documents, and proposing China’s admission to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation as an observer during the SAARC Summit in Dhaka, Bangladesh, early last month.
China sends weapons
China has reciprocated with shipments of arms and ammunition, despite requests from New Delhi and Washington not to. A recent report said 18 truckloads of military supplies entered Nepal in the third week of November containing 4.2 million rounds of 7.62 mm rifle ammunition, 80,000 high explosive grenades and 12,000 AK-series rifles.
Three months after declaring a unilateral cease-fire on Sept. 3, the Maoist rebels in Nepal are increasingly emerging as “good boys,” having extended the unilateral truce on Dec. 2 for another month until Jan. 2, while King Gyanendra’s regime is increasingly isolated.
In a statement, Maoist Chairman Prachanda said his party decided to “prolong the cease-fire by a month … despite provocations from the government forces,” but that “it would not be possible to continue to extend the cease-fire if government forces continue offensives against the rebels.”
The Maoist announcement was quickly welcomed by political parties, civic leaders and human rights activists, the European Community, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, and the International Commission of Jurists. They also appealed to King Gyanendra to reciprocate.
Nations supportive
The international community seems satisfied with the turn of events. India quietly dropped its “twin pillars” idea of bringing the king and parliamentary parties together to deal with the Maoists. In Washington, the Bush administration’s idea of isolating and defeating the Maoists by bringing the king and parties together has been questioned in the Senate.
Sen. Patrick J. Leahy told the Senate Nov. 18 that the Bush administration’s attempt to nudge the king toward democracy had not worked. The Vermont Democrat asked his colleagues: “With the king increasingly imperious and isolated and the political parties already making overtures to the Maoists, what is to be lost by calling for the Maoists to extend the cease-fire, for the army to reciprocate, for international monitors to verify compliance, and for representatives of all sectors of society who support a democratic, peaceful Nepal to sit down at the negotiating table?”
King Gyanendra, instead of agreeing to join the Maoist cease-fire, remains belligerent. In a Dec. 2 message to the nation upon his return from Africa, he ignored the new developments and proposed holding municipal elections in February, citing “significant improvements in the law-and-order” situation, a claim no one believes.
King expands Cabinet
On Wednesday, he also reshuffled and expanded the Cabinet with loyalists and disgruntled leaders of major political parties, a move analysts say is aimed at creating distraction and division in the opposing camp.
He also urged national unity and “patriotism,” joining the accusations of some monarchists that the understanding between the Maoists and the seven-party alliance was “foreign-inspired, anti-national and unholy.”
Analysts say the king, revered and worshipped as an incarnation of Lord Vishnu by some conservative Hindus, is unlikely to agree to be bound by a constitution drafted by “duniyadar” (earthly creatures).
Neither is it likely the Maoists will extend their cease-fire beyond Jan. 2, since this would allow the king to proceed with his planned Feb. 8 municipal elections. Consequently, concern increases that Nepal is headed toward violent confrontations and urban uprisings in the year 2006.
• Chitra Tiwari can be reached by e-mail at cktiwari@verizon.net.
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