Beware China’s traps

As the Bush administration concentrates on the multiple problems of the Middle East and moves to improve relations with Europe, it must take care not to ignore the traps set by China. With more than 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, an anti-American regime in Iran determined to acquire nuclear weapons, an unhelpful government in Syria, and a rare chance for peace between Israel and the Palestinians, the Middle East is naturally the focus of administration attention.

But the Chinese pot simmers on the back burner and could boil over if not carefully watched. With the U.S. heavily committed in the Middle East and eager to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, Beijing sees a chance for a free hand with Taiwan in exchange for helping control North Korea.

China’s growing economic prosperity gives it leverage. Last year, the U.S. trade deficit with China rose to $162 billion. Our purchases are making China a fat cat nation with enough cash to buy everything in sight. What it wants most is modern weapons that will give it the capability to both strike Taiwan and fight off the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

The U.S. and Europe embargoed arms sales to China after its army brutally crushed the 1989 uprising in Tiananmen Square, but Russia did not. Since then, China has become Moscow’s main arms customer, spending billions to buy or manufacture under license some of Russia’s best fighter planes, destroyers, submarines, and other advanced weapons. Beijing wants a modern military machine that can intimidate Taiwan, and if intimidation fails, that can invade and conquer the island.

The aim is to complete Mao Tse-tung’s revolution by “unifying” Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary. But Taiwan never was under the control of the communist regime, and most of the island’s 23 million people don’t want to be. For 55 years, two countries have existed on opposite sides of the Taiwan Strait, each independent of the other.

But on a trip to China last October, Secretary of State Colin Powell embraced Beijing’s goal of unification. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to be more conscious of Taiwan’s independence and should avoid Beijing’s rhetorical traps.

Taiwan’s elected President Chen Shui-bian seeks peace, stability and development in the region, and wants to deal with the mainland through dialogue. An example is the agreement between the two sides to allow charter flights between Taiwan and the mainland during celebrations of the Chinese New Year. This was achieved, in part, because of separate requests made last year by Mr. Powell and Miss Rice, as national security adviser, for Beijing to continue dialogue with Taiwan.

Despite such achievements, Beijing’s irrational desire to isolate and absorb Taiwan drives its foreign policy. Beijing has pushed hard for Europe to lift its embargo on arms sales. Despite the best efforts of U.S. diplomacy, China is succeeding. China’s foreign exchange reserves of nearly $600 billion is a pot of gold many Europeans find too lucrative to resist. Making money trumps morality.

The end of the European embargo may be a fait accompli, but the administration and Congress still can do something about it. They can make certain no European weapons with U.S. components are sold to China, and make it clear that European companies that sell weapons to China cannot expect to do business here.

While the future of the embargo is playing out in Europe, Beijing has come up with another ploy. In December, a committee of the rubber-stamp National People’s Congress approved a draft “anti-separation law.” The purpose seems to be to create a legal foundation for war against Taiwan, to prevent its “separation” from the mainland.

This unilateral mainland legislation is at cross-purposes with the U.S. and Taiwan goal of regional peace and stability. It will chill Taiwanese investment in the mainland, cut cross-strait travel by students, tourists and businessmen and diminish the chance of further dialogue. The administration should press Beijing to drop its provocative “anti-separation law” and continue fruitful discussions with Taiwan on cross-strait contacts.

President Bush has embarked on a bold campaign to bring democracy to the Middle East. He should be no less determined to maintain the democracy already flourishing on Taiwan. The president should inform China that Taiwan’s freedom will never be a quid pro quo for pressure on North Korea.

James T. Hackett is a contributing writer to The Washington Times and is based in San Diego.