Caution against GOP panic

• Article
• Comments ()
• Click-2-Listen
• Videos

By

The conventional wisdom is that President Bush and the Republicans are headed for a disaster in this election year. But the conventional wisdom is often exaggerated if not entirely wrong.

A week of interviews with election pollsters and campaign strategists elicits a wide range of views about the current political climate, the mood of the electorate and the overall direction of the country. These views range from a significant erosion in Mr. Bush's base that will hurt Republicans this year to a stern admonition that "this is not panic time."

Virtually every poll shows Mr. Bush's job approval numbers have fallen into the 35-40 percent range, including a significant decline in support for his handling of the war on terrorism -- once his strongest suit -- and lower marks from his supporters.

Independent pollster John Zogby, who says Mr. Bush's scores are in the high-30s, told me "only winning back some of his own base and reassuring that base on terrorism, which was his strength, is going to halt the erosion in his numbers."

Mr. Zogby's surprising poll findings showed President Bush at 51 percent among born-again Christians, down from 71 percent, and under 45 percent among veterans, gun owners and married voters, who are among the Republican Party's bedrock constituencies. "So first and foremost, he's got to win them back, because I don't see him under any circumstances winning back anybody on the [Democratic] side," he said.

This has raised fears in GOP circles that unless Mr. Bush's numbers improve soon, they could be a drag in some of this year's most tightly contested congressional races. "If the election were held today, it would be a bloodbath for the Republicans who would probably lose the House," a Republican strategist told me. But other campaign advisers reject that view as excessively pessimistic and premature.

"To some extent it [Mr. Bush's standing in the polls] is affecting the races, but only because the races really haven't begun. At some point these races are going to be about the two candidates in each race," said longtime campaign consultant John Brabender. "This is ultimately not going to be about Bush helping or hurting someone getting elected, but ultimately will be about the candidates' records."

As for the president's low approval numbers, Mr. Brabender notes that Mr. Bush is in good company. Voters are critical of just about everyone in the nation's political hierarchy.

"Not only is the president's rating low, so is Congress' and so are most of the state legislatures now," he said. "It is a problem for both the Republicans and the Democrats."

When asked what it would take for Mr. Bush's polls to turn upward, GOP pollster Wes Anderson replied, "Two things: the economy or Iraq. What happens on both those issues is more important than any other issue. If we can recapture the initiative on both those issues, I think his numbers will recover."