Latin America's new old left

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The political left is inheriting Latin America. Still, leftist leaders should not become overconfident about their political longevity.

Latin Americans have become a hypermobilized people, in the thrall of a newfound sense of enfranchisement. It is almost as if, by some stroke of magical realism, the barriers that impeded mass social movement suddenly disappeared. Electorates are demanding social justice, accountability and, generally, greater power over policy.

The problem is that the mobilization is not the result of a gradual awakening, but rather justifiable outrage about the corruption and impunity of ruling elites. The movement is unpredictable and could not only undercut long-term prospects for sustainable prosperity but could also turn even on leftist governments that are not seen delivering what the populace believes it is owed.

To understand the indignation and mobilization of the region, it is necessary to take a historical detour. Many Latin Americans still feel they were denied the "socialist experiment" by U.S.-supported military regimes in the '70s and '80s. The electorates are demonstrating socialist sentiment can be coerced away only for a limited time. Military coups now appear to have only bought time. The future of the region's leftist governments will define how successful that stall proves to be.

After countries successfully democratized, the future seemed promising. Electorates supported sacrificing economic policies -- such as Argentina's peso-dollar peg, called the Convertibility Plan--which was described as the path to sustainable development. As Argentines bore the tightening of the Convertibility Plan, President Carlos Menem and his cronies ransacked treasuries while Washington not only turned a blind eye but applauded the government with irrational exuberance.

The Clinton administration made Argentina a major non-NATO ally in 1998 and in 1997 Michel Camdessus, then the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), called Argentina's Convertibility Plan a " 'Credibility Plan' par excellence."

Argentina's 2001 economic catastrophe destroyed its social compact and alarmed the region. Although the country was once notably safe, violent crime and social upheaval continue to rage. The Menem government's rapaciousness contributed to the downfall of not only Argentina, but also the street credibility of economic liberalism.

The next event to traumatize the region was Bolivia's 1999 decision, promoted by the World Bank and IMF, to privatize the public water system of the city of Cochabamba.

The privatization, amazingly enough, even covered wells which the communities, not the Bolivian government, had built themselves. Water prices were immediately raised sharply.

The country's poor protested the policy en masse, and the government cracked down brutally. In 2000, an Army captain opened fire on a protest, killing a 17-year-old student, which fueled further outrage and ultimately forced Bolivia to abandon the privatization. Much of the region was horrified to see the government so forcefully repress demands for water.