A series of snap judgments

The decision determines the success and longevity of the general manager and coach, costs the owner around $40 million in guaranteed salary and sets a franchise’s course for the next five years.

Each year entering the NFL Draft, a handful of teams face the question the Oakland Raiders, Cleveland Browns and, to a lesser extent, the Detroit Lions must answer by Saturday: Do they choose a quarterback with their first pick? And if so, which one?

The Raiders have been on the clock since completing their dismal season Dec. 31 and have been projected to draft a quarterback since jettisoning their starter in late February. This year’s top prospects in an otherwise weak group are Louisiana State’s JaMarcus Russell and Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn.

For every “hit” with a drafted quarterback, there are myriad “misses,” making the most important position in football also the toughest to project.

The Browns, Lions and Houston Texans still haven’t recovered from missing on Tim Couch, Joey Harrington and David Carr, respectively. It took the Cincinnati Bengals hitting with Carson Palmer in 2003 and the San Diego Chargers acquiring Philip Rivers a year later to make up for the Akili Smith (1999) and Ryan Leaf (1998) disasters.

And the Washington Redskins? Heath Shuler not panning out in the mid-1990s has led to a steady parade of starting quarterbacks.

“If you miss at the top end, you can set your franchise back three to five years,” NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said.

Said Redskins coach Joe Gibbs: “You look through history, and it’s hard to analyze quarterbacks. [Joe] Montana was a third-round pick. [Joe] Theismann was a fourth-rounder. [Mark] Rypien was a sixth-rounder for us. A guy like [Jake] Delhomme sits on the bench for five years before he got a chance. It’s one of the harder positions to really project.”

If a team chooses wisely, it can inject new life into a struggling franchise — like Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Michael Vick and Palmer did with their teams.

It’s why teams looking for a quarterback spare no expense and leave no detail unearthed during the four-plus months between the end of the season and the draft.

“It’s an exhaustive process,” Redskins associate head coach Al Saunders said. “The evaluation of their background is an inquisition of everybody that has come into contact with him. The Leaf-Manning thing serves as an example of the detailed work that needs to be done. You obviously evaluate the physical ability but also the character. It will get to the point where if you’re in position to pick one of them and have to rate them Nos. 1 and 2, you’re going to spend a tremendous amount of time at their school with the head coach, the coordinator and the position coach.”

This year’s top two quarterbacks are different in stature and how they get the job done. Russell is a physical marvel (6-foot-6, nearly 260 pounds) with a monster arm. Quinn isn’t the long-ball threat but was reared by a Super Bowl-winning offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis, at Notre Dame.

Russell a rare talent

If Russell didn’t have “QB” on his sweatshirt when he walked through a conference room full of media members at this winter’s NFL Combine in Indianapolis, he could have passed for a defensive lineman. He’s that big.

“From a physical skill set perspective, I’ve never seen a college quarterback with more ability,” Mayock said. “You put the tape on, and it’s frightening. He can make every throw. He’s got better touch than you would expect. He’s got a pretty good feel for the game for a guy that hasn’t played all that many snaps. He’s a guy physically that is without parallel.”

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