Chinese colonel sees arms in space

DAVOS, Switzerland — A senior Chinese military officer predicts that weapons will be deployed in outer space despite her government’s long-standing desire to prevent an arms race there.

Yao Yunzhu, a senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, brought up China’s recent successful test of an anti-satellite weapon during a World Economic Forum dinner Thursday.

“My wish is we really want to keep space as a peaceful place for human beings,” she said, adding that China would like all countries to come to a consensus that space should be used only for peaceful purposes.

“But personally, I’m pessimistic about it,” said Col. Yao, 52, who directs the Asia-Pacific Office at the Academy of Military Science in Beijing. “My prediction: Outer space is going to be weaponized in our lifetime.”

Col. Yao’s remarks were the first time a member of the Chinese military has commented on the test. The only other official comment, from the Foreign Ministry, offered the barest confirmation and repeated stock positions about China’s wish to keep space free of weapons.

“This isn’t the act of a country who remains fiercely committed to peace and harmony in the world,” said Adm. Timothy Keating, commander of U.S. Northern Command. “This is a cause for concern. … In executing this test, they have created potential significant problems for international space flight.”

Adm. Keating told the Associated Press in an interview this week there are ongoing worries that such tests have other consequences, “intended or otherwise,” that China must realize, including potential damage to other satellites or the space station by debris.

He added that the United States does not now plan a direct response to the test, but “there are a number of things that are on the list of potential military options” if it happens again.

The Jan. 11 test sparked criticism from the United States and Japan, and created concerns over the rising militarization of space. Analysts said it also represented an indirect threat to U.S. efforts to remain predominant in space and on the ground, because it raised the possibility that the network of U.S. spy satellites could be shot down.

The U.S. military has had the capability to shoot down satellites since the 1980s. Russia has a similar capacity, and now China is the third potential military power in space.

China confirmed the test on Tuesday but did not provide details — and neither did Col. Yao. The magazine Aviation Week, which first reported the test, said the satellite was hit by a kinetic kill vehicle launched from a ballistic missile.

China’s long-standing policy has been to ban weapons in space, Col. Yao said, noting that Russia and China presented a draft outline for a treaty to prevent the deployment of weapons in space to the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva in June 2002.

The United States objected at the time, saying the 1967 Outer Space Treaty provided sufficient guarantees against the weaponization of space. The Russians countered that while the 1967 treaty banned weapons of mass destruction in space, it did not contain any legal barriers to putting other weapons in orbit around the Earth.

Without naming any country, but in an apparent reference to the United States, Col. Yao said if there’s going to be “a space superpower, it’s not going to be alone, and China is not going to be the only one.”

“It will have company,” she said.

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