TAUBE: O Canada!

OPINION:

OP-ED:

On Oct. 14, Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives were re-elected with a larger vote share and number of seats. Less than two months later, the federal government is on the brink of collapse, thanks to a suspect coalition of liberals, socialists and separatists. It’s an ongoing political crisis that will have a profound effect not only in Canada, but also the United States.

Let’s recap. The Conservatives currently hold 143 out of 308 seats in parliament. It’s an increase of 16 seats from the 2006 election, but Mr. Harper still governs from a minority position - he consistently needs support from opposition parties to stay in power. To begin the new parliamentary session, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced a controversial policy proposal: the elimination of public financing for political parties. Major and minor parties earn $1.56 for every vote they receive in a federal election, meaning that roughly $24 million in taxpayer money is doled out annually.

While the Conservatiess would take the greatest financial hit from this proposal –- to the tune of $8 million –- they’re also the top party in terms of private fundraising. For parties such as the Liberals (who are heavily in debt), socialist New Democrats and separatist Bloc Quebecois, this financial loss would significantly impact their ability to campaign in an election. The opposition was furious, and it quickly became clear that the minority Conservative government had made a strategic error.

The three left-wing parties then decided to selfishly band together to defeat the Conservatives in a non-confidence motion yesterday. (Although they publicly claimed it was due to their frustration over the lack of a government economic stimulus package, most observers rejected this notion.) The Liberals and NDP would jointly govern, with the bloc holding the balance of power. In an astonishing decision, Liberal leader Stephane Dion, who lost the confidence of his own party after the federal election and is stepping down next May, would temporarily become the new prime minister. A 24-member cabinet would be established, with six positions going to socialists for the first time in Canada’s federal political history. And there were rumors of Bloc members –- and even the Green Party leader -– being appointed to the unelected upper chamber, the Senate. The Conservatives scrambled to save themselves, and did so in a flabbergasting display on Dec. 4: They prorogued (or temporarily shut down) parliament before the vote. To do so, Mr. Harper had to ask for - and received -the consent of Governor-General Michaelle Jean, an unelected ceremonial official who is, in effect, the queen’s representative in Canada.

To be fair, it’s completely legal for Mr. Harper to ask the governor-general to prorogue parliament. But there was no historical constitutional precedent in Canada to shut down parliament before it had even started. The PM was therefore granted a political do-over, or “get out of jail free” card.

But the crisis is far from over. If anything, it just got worse.

Parliament has only been prorogued until Jan. 26, and a federal budget will be introduced shortly thereafter. The left-wing coalition is fuming, and I suspect they’ll immediately defeat the government and throw Canada into another election. The Conservatives have only delayed the inevitable by a few weeks, and are little more than a lame-duck government. As someone who wrote speeches for this prime minister, it’s a sad turn of events.

The incoming White House –- and all Americans –- should also take heed of this crisis. Canada is a significant trading partner and political ally, and this political coup doesn’t work in their favor.

Sure, the Obama administration and Canada’s coalition partners have some political and economic similarities. But when it comes to critical issues like the free market and national security, the Conservatives are far more in line with American values –- and the incoming administration’s beliefs.

Here are some examples: All three left-wing parties have espoused or currently espouse anti-American views; the NDP and BQ, along with some Liberal MPs, reject a greater role for the private sector; of the three coalition partners, only the Liberals support the war in Afghanistan and the need to root out al Qaeda; and two well-respected market-oriented Liberals, Frank McKenna and John Manley, decided against joining the coalition’s planned advisory panel on economic issues.

Since taking power, Mr. Harper has successfully worked with President Bush to repair icy Canada-U.S. relations caused by previous Liberal governments. While Barack Obama and Mr. Harper are different political animals, my sense is they’ll be able to work together to maintain our two countries’ strong political and economic relationship.

That’s not the case with the rag-tag coalition of Liberals and ardent leftists that might usurp power in January.

If they’re successful, “a change is gonna come,” to quote Sam Cooke - but it’s a change that neither most Americans nor Mr. Obama would ever desire.

Michael Taube, a former speechwriter for Canada’s prime minister, is a public affairs analyst and commentator.