GOP banks on McCain to lure Hispanic vote

Two years ago, Republicans fought over immigration and hemorrhaged Hispanic voters. Now they are poised to nominate the one man who can rebuild the Hispanic voter coalition that pushed President Bush twice to victory, the architects of that coalition say.

“I think the only candidate that Republicans have running for president who could retain those votes is in fact Senator McCain,” said the Rev. Luis Cortes Jr., president of Esperanza USA, founder of the National Hispanic Prayer Breakfast and a key player in helping Mr. Bush connect with Hispanic voters during his two runs for office.

Democrats have traditionally enjoyed a strong advantage among Hispanic voters, though Mr. Bush changed all that, gaining 35 percent in 2000 and as much as 44 percent in 2004. Two years later, however, Republicans’ support among Hispanics collapsed under the weight of the immigration debate, falling to 30 percent for Republican congressional candidates.

But by fighting his own party on immigration and by having ties to Hispanic leaders, Sen. John McCain emerged as the lone GOP presidential candidate capable of competing with Democrats for Hispanic votes.

“Without a doubt,” said Lionel Sosa, a media strategist who was instrumental in Mr. Bush’s two wins. “All of us are waiting in the wings, we’re waiting for the call. We’re waiting to serve.”

Pollster John Zogby said the Republican Party has been “hemorrhaging, as far as Hispanics are concerned.” But he said the Arizona senator has a broad appeal that can reverse that among Hispanics, who he said are open to his “maverick” image.

“It’s not simply immigration. The election is won in the middle this year, and he has great appeal to independents and to moderates, and that’s on the basis of authenticity, character,” Mr. Zogby said.

It’s a sign of how critical Hispanic voters have become that the 2004 exit poll showing Mr. Bush won 44 percent of Hispanics is under fire. Democrats, some conservative Republicans and Hispanic rights groups argue the actual number is at least 10 percentage points lower.

The key question for Mr. McCain is how close he can come to 40 percent — the threshold Matt Dowd, another architect of the Bush campaign’s Hispanic strategy, said he must hit.

“I don’t know about topping the 40 — this is going to be a big Democratic year for Hispanics, period. But he can at least recoup,” Mr. Zogby said.

Still, Mr. Sosa said Mr. McCain can match Mr. Bush’s showing, but he’ll have to work for it.

“Latinos did not go from voting Democrat to voting Republican in either 2000 or 2004 — Latinos went for voting for the man that reached out,” he said.

Holding steady matters to Republicans because Hispanics are among the nation’s fastest-growing demographic groups. In 1992, they constituted 4 percent of 92 million voters. In 2004, they were 8.5 percent of 122 million voters. This year, they could be 11 percent of 135 million voters, Mr. Zogby said.

But there are signs those voters already are turned off to Republicans, said Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic Programs at NDN, a liberal advocacy group and a successor to the New Democrat Network. He pointed to the news-network exit polls from this year’s primaries, which have shown far-higher participation by Hispanics in the Democratic primaries than in the Republican primaries.

In California, Hispanics were 30 percent of the gigantic Democratic turnout, while they constituted just 13 percent of Republican primary voters. Even in Mr. McCain’s home state of Arizona, where his ties run deepest, only 7 percent of the Republican primary electorate was Hispanic, while they made up 18 percent of Democratic primary voters.

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