Thursday, July 3, 2008
SALHANI: Chinese dragon in Mideast politics
COMMENTARY:
Enter the dragon in Middle East politics. No, this is not taken from the title of a remake of an old Bruce Lee action-packed, made-in-Hong Kong karate movie. Rather, the phrase refers more to China's new policies in countering Western influence for a piece of the Middle East's most important commodity - oil.
In recent years China has undergone a new revolution that has seen the emergence of a new college-educated middle class, and with money to spend. One of the immediate side effects of China's new bourgeoisie has been its insatiable desire for their own vehicles. With the number of private cars sold in China increasing as never before, and its oil production decreasing, Beijing has developed a strategic new interest in the black gold, and is on an offensive of charm to woo Middle Eastern leaders.
Today, China imports more Saudi oil than the United States.
As Jon B. Alterman and John W. Carver described it in their new book, "The Vital Triangle: China, the United States and the Middle East," the relationship between China and Saudi Arabia for example, is simple: "uncomplicated by either country's sense of its global role or its global responsibility. Saudi Arabia has gas and oil; China needs gas and oil. On that basis, agreements were made."
Indeed, it is a very different approach to conventional politics, with all the usual intricacies of traditional politics left behind in the cloakroom. The relationship between China and Saudi Arabia, as well as with other Gulf countries, are based purely on trade. These agreements between China and the oil-producing Gulf countries differ greatly from the complex love-hate relationship that now exists between the desert kingdom and the United States. The latter relationship began in 1930s also is based on oil and energy security but, as the authors noted, "has evolved into one that also concentrates heavily on counter- terrorism, radicalization, the Arab-Israeli conflict, Iraq, Iran and human rights."
Understandably, given the sensitivities surrounding each of those issues, the United States and Saudi diplomats must feel at times as if they are tiptoeing through minefields. Adding complexity to the U.S.-Saudi relationship is the fact that "traditionally, each country's ambassador to the other deals directly with the executive of the other state rather than working through foreign ministry counterparts," as is the case with most other nations.
But some feel China can play a positive role in the Middle East, particularly given that unlike the United States, China comes with no "baggage."
A number of Middle East analysts see that as an advantage that could be put to good use. This view however, is not shared by all, particularly in the United States, which has traditionally looked at the Middle East as its own private hunting grounds.
China's sudden appearance in the region and its cordial relations and exchanges with not only Saudi Arabia but other U.S. allies such as Oman and Qatar has a number of American politicians looking very carefully at China's every move in the region.
"The U.S. reservations about this are captured by John McCain's statements about the Chinese hindering the U.S., about how China is an obstacle to the U.S. accomplishing its policies, not only in the Middle East but further beyond," Mr. Alterman said.
As he said last week in Washington, the chief advantage for the Arab countries in dealing with China is the lack of political baggage. "Gone are the days when China has sought to be the reliable friend of liberation movements around the world and thus the foe of most established governments," Mr. Alterman said.
China may well have stopped supporting revolutionary movements around various parts of the planet. However, the accepted foreign policy orthodoxy in China is that the United States is a hegemonic power that aggressively pursues its own interests at others' expense.
Many analysts see recent U.S. efforts to reform the Middle East and replace unpalatable rulers as undermining rather than supporting stability. In this way, they see the United States acting against the interests not only of China, but of the international community more broadly.
China believes it can play a moderating role in the region, and Beijing tries to level the field between Washington and Tehran, said Mr. Alterman, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. China, he said, will lean against the side seeking confrontation.
"The more the U.S. seems to be tipping toward war, the more they will side with Iran. And the more they see Iran being confrontational, the more they side with the U.S. to get the Iranians to back down. It's not a clear policy, it's a subtle policy."
Mr. Alterman explained: "It's a policy where you not only have to look at what they do but the timing of what they do.
Claude Salhani is editor of the Middle East Times.