GROFF AND ELLISON: Accessing Africa's black gold

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By Peter Groff and Charles Ellison

Considering the mess that is President Robert Mugabe's Zimbabwe, up until recently, readers of fine American print would have to strain eyes to find a headline on that corner of Southern Africa. Following the latest sham of an election — you've got to really drop a jaw and gawk a cynical laugh at how Mr. Mugabe played it — we expressed amazement that the violence in Harare was even reaching a front page other than the BBC.

In reality, flashpoints of conflict and civil unrest in Africa do and will continue to impact us in big ways. The depth of that impact will become even more intense depending on the level of attention we pay to it — which, clearly, isn´t a whole lot. We are preoccupied with our own domestic concerns: recession; inflation; our pockets crushed by rising food and gas prices; our homes hammered by climate change, wild fires and tornados. The last thing on our minds is another brutal dictator fingering the Western world. Plus, we silently hope for some immunity from anything remotely depressing that is African, fearing it will conjure up fresh guilt over slavery, racism and the Western imperialism partly responsible for laying waste to the continent.

However, what happens in Zimbabwe gives us a real sense of U.S. foreign policy priorities over the next decade. It's an issue reporters on the campaign trail should ask rather than digging for surrogate snaps, missteps and gaffes. How will a President John McCain or President Barack Obama handle the fragile continental elephant in the global room? We can predict either campaign's response. Mr. McCain will stumble about in typical geriatric fashion, drop a corny quip about what little he knows then give some cookie-cutter response on spreading democracy like mayonnaise. Mr. Obama, as the "race-neutral" candidate, will offer general denunciations of despotic regimes, but he won't offer anything deeper out of calculated concern that any talk of Africa fuels false Internet rumors and fresh nonsense over his "blackness." That's not good enough.

Events in Africa shape a new quest for untapped resources, namely oil. All that talk about "blood diamonds" only shrouds a more important dialogue on the fierce competition between the U.S. and China for the dangerously coveted fossil fuel. China's excessive growth, combined with its growing military and diplomatic presence, underscores a need for more oil as its population and economy expand. Meanwhile, U.S. grumbling over rising oil prices and the continuing issue of decreased OPEC production will drive the demand for more exploration, drilling and defense of present and future oil reserves.

Both economic giants, engaged in a hushed "cold war," are soon to bump heads in Africa while jumping about for new pockets of oil. The Middle East becomes less prominent over time: the instability of non-stop Islamic fundamentalism and indications of scarce or inaccessible black gold in that region make Africa attractive and easy. With oil prices topping $270 per barrel by 2013, African oil becomes a no-brainer.

We're already there. The U.S. imports more oil from West Africa than Saudi Arabia and Kuwait combined; and, within the next decade, we'll be drawing more oil from Africa than from our normal tap in the Middle East. Under the guise of the "war on terror," the U.S. military presence is much more pronounced than in previous years, with the Pentagon now creating Africom as a new regional command center. The Bush administration fronts about its concern over HIV/AIDS, al Qaeda and illicit drug rings in Africa, but it's all about the oil - a direct response to China's move for the exact same thing. The Chinese, forming solid ties with African dictators like Mr. Mugabe (one main reason driving his emboldened arrogance), will continue ramping up trade deals, cultural linkages and military sales. At some point, Mr. Mugabe will have to chill if Zimbabwe's troubles spread like a virus into South Africa – Africa's largest economy and platform for continental business.

Few want to ponder it since modern "colonialism" is a culturally sensitive topic. That brings us back to the election. Pressing candidates on Iraq only begs the question; Africa is the real deal, especially if the Democratic nominee becomes president. He may not want to hear it, but a "President Obama" could tip the competitive scales on the continent. Africans, basking in the euphoria of their perceived "son" as "leader of the free world," would respond positively to an Obama administration. He would be the friendly point man leveraging U.S. influence in that region, the public relations coup against rapid Chinese clout. His only challenge would be maneuvering the muddy madness of greedy dictators suppressing any chance at democratic reform. But the great legacy of the man with the Kenyan father could be unprecedented American access to African oil.

Colorado Senate President Peter Groff is founding executive director of the University of Denver's Center for African American Policy. Charles D. Ellison is senior fellow at the center. They host the radio show "Blackpolicy.org."