Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Nuclear fuel expansion raises proliferation fear
A report from a State Department advisory panel warns of proliferation threats as global nuclear energy generation expands, and it recommends that the United States embrace the trend to ensure that fuel-supplying nations adopt safeguards to manage the risks.
Critics of the report say the expansion of nuclear power is not inevitable and should be resisted.
A task force of the International Security Advisory Board chaired by former Pentagon and World Bank official Paul Wolfowitz produced the report, titled "Proliferation Implications of the Global Expansion of Civil Nuclear Power," in response to a request from Robert Joseph, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security.
C. Paul Robinson, an arms control negotiator in the Reagan and first Bush administrations, was the primary author of the report. It was produced in two months earlier this year, and consists of 10 pages plus another 20 pages of introductory and appendix material.
The report said global demand for energy is likely to double by 2030.
"Nuclear energy is likely to be in great demand because of the large price increases for oil and natural gas and the fact that nuclear power produces no carbon emissions," according to the report.
Mr. Robinson said the expansion of civil nuclear energy generation is inevitable and already under way.
"You just have to read the newspapers to see that this is the case," he told United Press International in an interview.
The report cites a list prepared by the State Department in 2007 of several countries planning to join the nuclear power club, or "giving serious consideration" to it, within the next 10 years.
Nations considering nuclear power include the former Soviet republics of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, Muslim giants Indonesia, Egypt and Turkey, Poland and the three Baltic states.
Fifteen other nations including Algeria, Ghana, Libya, Malaysia, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen have "longer term plans or studies under way," according to the State Department list.
While wealthier countries "can to try to buy their way out" of the looming energy crunch, "the Third World does not have that option," the report said. "There has proved to be no silver bullet in renewable or other alternative energy sources."
The report said 435 nuclear reactors are operating around the world, 28 more are under construction and an additional 222 are planned.
"It´s a pretty depressing prospect," Mr. Robinson said.
One of the key concerns is that the two principal ways of making nuclear fuel - enriching uranium and reprocessing used reactor fuel into plutonium - can be used to make weapons-grade material for nuclear bombs.
The report recommends that the United States focus on reaching deals with nations that already make nuclear fuel, instead of trying to strengthen the existing global proliferation control regime by renegotiating the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
In exchange, aspirant nuclear power nations would make tough, enforceable pledges that they will not develop their own fuel production capacities.
Some critics challenge the premise, saying the idea that the growth of nuclear power generation is inevitable is a canard.
Many of those 435 reactors are scheduled to be retired in the next 20 to 30 years, said Henry Sokolski, a proliferation authority who worked for Mr. Wolfowitz in the first Bush administration and sits alongside him on the congressionally mandated panel examining the threat of terrorist attacks using nuclear material or other weapons of mass destruction.
Nuclear energy is too expensive and too risky to be a commercially viable venture without government support, Mr. Sokolski told UPI.
"There´s a reason no one in the private sector wants to do this with their own money," Mr. Sokolski said. "Nuclear power is a hard sell, literally. ... What the [U.S.] nuclear industry is doing is asking for government handouts, in the form of tax credits, loan guarantees and insurance caps."
Mr. Sokolski said the report's authors "seem to be in the business of promoting the expansion of nuclear power, rather than examining the risks associated with its expansion. ... They should have explained in more detail why we should be concerned."
Brian Finlay of the Stimson Center, which deals with proliferation issues, said the proliferation cat is effectively halfway out of the bag.
"The ability of governments to prevent the proliferation of dangerous technologies has drastically declined and continues to decline," he said.
Mr. Finlay, who has worked with Third World governments on proliferation issues, said there is "a long-standing sensitivity to any policy that appears to be trying to restrict technology transfer."
His main criticism is that the report "fails to create a pathway which we can move down towards ending this adversarial relationship with the Third World."
The report said the expansion of civil nuclear generating capacity, "particularly within Third World nations, inevitably increases the risks of proliferation. What the United States must do," it concluded, "is find ways to mitigate those risks."
"Something is afoot and we can´t put on blinders and pretend it´s not happening," Mr. Robinson said.
"Iran is saying, 'You can´t infringe on our sovereign rights as a nation,'" to develop nuclear power and fuel production, Mr. Robinson said.
But its neighbors have rights, too. "They are worried. They´re saying, 'If they have the right [to a nuclear program], we have the right to defend ourselves´ and develop their own nuclear programs," Mr. Robinson said.
"Somebody has to do something or [the neighbors] are going to take matters into their own hands," Mr. Robinson said.
Iran has refused repeated demands from the United States, the U.N. Security Council and leading European powers to halt efforts to enrich uranium, saying the Non-Proliferation Treaty can do nothing to ban a country from making fuel for nuclear reactors.