Evangelicals warn against Romney on ticket

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By Ralph Z. Hallow

"In our online poll, Romney won a plurality, and Mike Huckabee ran a strong second," said Mr. Bauer, who also told The Times that he does not think Mr. Romney ought to be a drag on the ticket. "But a lot of the Huckabee supporters said if Romney is McCain's choice, they would bail out in November."

An evangelical leader who, though he has close ties to Mr. McCain, confided to The Times that polling suggests that putting Mr. Romney on the ticket likely would cost Mr. McCain 7 percent to 10 percent of the evangelical vote - enough to spell defeat for Mr. McCain in a close race with Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee.

White evangelicals have become the Republican bedrock in recent elections, providing President Bush with 35 percent of his votes in 2004. Even in 2006, white evangelicals backed Republicans overwhelmingly - by a margin of 70 percent to 28 percent. Depending on the survey and the precise wording of the question, polls typically show that evangelical or "born-again" Christians make up between 30 percent and 40 percent of the U.S. population.

David Barton, a former vice president of the Republican Party of Texas, said, "The key for Mr. McCain is to pick someone who opposes abortion but doesn't alienate any part of the general Republican voting coalition" as Mr. Romney does.

Longtime social-conservative leaders such as Phyllis Schlafly, Phil Burress, Donald P. Hodel and Mathew Staver said earlier this month that they can rally their voters around Mr. McCain largely on the issues of abortion and the judiciary, as long as they are confident that the vice-presidential candidate is pro-life. They are skeptical about Mr. Romney's views.

Mr. Barton, founder of the national pro-life group WallBuilders, said the downside for picking either Mr. Romney or Mr. Huckabee is that evangelicals still would vote for Mr. McCain on Nov. 4 - given the alternative of Mr. Obama - but not work as hard organizing and getting out the vote.

"Romney would bring to the ticket as much enthusiasm from supporters as Huckabee would bring, but Romney's would be from fiscal conservatives and Huckabee's would be evangelicals," he said.

Similarly, a Huckabee choice would leave fiscal conservatives voting for Mr. McCain but otherwise sitting on their hands. Mr. Romney has long been a successful fundraiser - a skill needed because Mr. Obama is expected to raise hundreds of millions of dollars.

Republican strategists close to the Romney camp are promoting the former presidential contender behind the scenes.

"Romney really doesn't think he will be chosen, and that there are far better veep choices for McCain. But in my view, Mitt checks a lot of boxes: He's vetted, he's a Washington outsider, he's conservative, he's a proven vote-getter in Michigan, and he can raise a ton of cash fast for the McCain campaign. He can be the economic voice for the McCain campaign," a conservative Republican strategist close to the Romney organization told The Times.

• Donald Lambro contributed to this report.