Poll: Taxes, economy are top concerns

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ANNAPOLIS — Maryland residents are worried about the economy and taxes, according to poll results to be released today that show Gov. Martin O'Malley's popularity continuing to slide.

Marylanders gave Mr. O'Malley a 37 percent job-approval rating, down two points from January, while 48 percent said they disapprove of the job he's doing, according to the poll conducted by Gonzales Research and Marketing Strategies of Annapolis.

Mr. O'Malley's support among Democrats dropped slightly from January, from 52 percent to 48 percent. The number of independents disapproving of his performance jumped 12 points over the same time, to 51 percent in the poll, which carries a 3.5 percent margin of error.

Mr. O'Malley made modest gains among Republican voters. Seventeen percent of Republicans approved of the governor's job performance, while 69 percent disapproved. In January, 14 percent of Republicans approved of Mr. O'Malley's work, while 78 percent disapproved.

Mr. O'Malley's support dropped sharply after he announced plans to raise $1.4 billion in new taxes during November's special session of the General Assembly. Last March, 52 percent of Marylanders approved of Mr. O'Malley, compared with 21 percent who said they disapproved.

"To bounce back, you either need a lot of time where things are OK, or you need some good news," said Laslo Boyd, partner at Gonzales Marketing and Research. "Right now, there isn't much of either."

The poll of 807 registered voters surveyed from Feb. 23 through March 1 found that 23 percent of Marylanders said they were most concerned with the national economy, followed by 20 percent who said they were most concerned about taxes.

"I think the thing that jumps out is, the economy is very significant, being the No. 1 unprompted issue for people," Mr. Boyd said. "Our polls have almost always shown education or health care being the No. 1 issue."

In January, 10 percent of Marylanders said they were most concerned with the economy, while 29 percent of Marylanders said taxes were the greatest problem facing the state.

"The poll clearly acknowledges the fear and anxiety our families are feeling about the national economy and foreclosure crisis, and the hard choices we made to protect our schools, freeze college tuition, expand health care, and protect our state's AAA bond rating," said Rick Abbruzzese, an O'Malley spokesman. "We believe that by protecting those priorities, Maryland will come through this national economic downturn more quickly than other states."

Mr. Boyd said Maryland has generally fared better than most other states during national economic downturns, but that the state does not look like it will be able to dodge those problems this time.

State lawmakers have become keenly aware of national economic problems over the past two months, as they have helped reopen a budget shortfall most believed was closed during the special session.

Budget analysts have estimated the state will need to find between $200 million and $300 million in the fiscal 2009 budget, but have also said the problem is not nearly as bad as the $1.5 billion structural shortfall lawmakers faced before the special session.

"We're going to have very slow growth, maybe not the growth we've been forecasting," said Warren G. Deschenaux, the General Assembly's chief budget analyst. "But I don't see us being quite as bad off as in the early 2000s and the early '90s."

An updated revenue forecast is expected to be released tomorrow.