Sunday, November 2, 2008
STATE BY STATE: The election outlook
The Associated Press has compiled a state-by-state review of the race for the White House as well as key congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. The state's number of electoral votes is in parentheses.
ALABAMA (9) -- McCain territory. Republican Sen. Jeff Sessions safe. Each party struggling to hold an open House seat.
ALASKA (3) -- Running mate Sarah Palin's state safe for McCain. Convicted GOP Sen. Ted Stevens and Republican Rep. Don Young in deep trouble.
ARIZONA (10) -- McCain's home state should be safe but isn't quite. Democrats on track to pick up one House seat.
ARKANSAS (6) -- McCain's for sure. Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor safe for re-election. CALIFORNIA (55) -- Obama gets the biggest prize, 55 electoral votes of 270 needed. Close race to replace retiring Republican in the House.
COLORADO (9) -- Obama making a run in a red state. Democratic Rep. Mark Udall favored to win open Republican Senate seat.
CONNECTICUT (7) -- Easy win for Obama. Democrats try again to defeat Rep. Chris Shays.
DELAWARE (3) -- Obama's for sure in running mate's home state. Sen. Joe Biden winning new term as insurance policy. Jack Markell favored to keep governor's office in Democratic hands.
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3) -- Obama country.
FLORIDA (27) -- Another tough southern fight for Obama and McCain. Democratic Rep. Kevin Mahoney headed for defeat, but Republicans expected to lose at least one seat of their own.
GEORGIA (15) -- McCain favored, but big early voting turnout gives Obama hope. GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss faces potential runoff on Dec. 2 in three-way race.
HAWAII (4) -- State where Obama spent part of his youth is safe for him.
IDAHO (4) -- McCain by far. Republican Jim Risch winning disgraced Sen. Larry Craig's seat. Democrats target Rep. Bill Sali.
ILLINOIS (21) -- Obama's home state safe. Democratic Sen. Durbin cruising to new term. Democrats favored to pick up at least one House seat.
INDIANA (11) -- Obama making a strong push in state next door to his own. Republican Gov. Mitch Daniels favored.
IOWA (7) -- Obama's the favorite in state where caucuses launched him in January. Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin cruising to new term.
KANSAS (6) -- Easy win for McCain. Republican Sen. Pat Roberts safe. GOP makes a run at first-term Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda.
KENTUCKY (8) -- Safe for McCain. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell in close and costly race. Democrats figure to pick up one House seat.
LOUSIANA (9) -- McCain's with ease. Democrats say Sen. Mary Landrieu safe but GOP makes a run.
MAINE (4) -- Obama, safely so. GOP Sen. Susan Collins coasting to third term.
MARYLAND (10) -- Obama territory. Democrats push to pick up open GOP House seat.
MASSACHUSETTS (12) -- Obama for sure. Sen. John Kerry gets new term four years after losing White House.
MICHIGAN (17) -- McCain conceded the state to Obama weeks ago. Democratic Sen. Carl Levin safe.
MINNESOTA (10) -- Part of Obama's base. GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is in a difficult race vs. Al Franken and independent Dean Barkley.
MISSISSIPPI (6) -- Southern state for McCain. Appointed Sen. Roger Wicker struggling for final four years of term; veteran Sen. Thad Cochran safe for re-election.
MISSOURI (11) -- Classic presidential swing state. Democrat Jay Nixon favored to replace retiring Republican governor.
MONTANA (3) -- McCain favored, but Obama launched late push. Democratic Sen. Max Baucus and Gov, Brian Schweitzer safe for new terms.
NEBRASKA (5) -- McCain state; Obama making play for one electoral vote. Former Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns easy winner for seat of retiring Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel.
NEVADA (5) -- Western toss-up. Democrats take aim at GOP Rep. Jon Porter. NEW HAMPSHIRE (4) -- Obama territory. GOP Sen. John Sununu in uphill climb for new term. Democratic Gov. John Lynch easy winner.
NEW JERSEY (15) -- Safe for Obama. Ditto Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg. Republican retirements create two highly competitive House races.
NEW MEXICO (5) -- Obama's to lose. Retirement of GOP Sen. Pete Domenici gives Democrats a pickup.
NEW YORK (31) -- Obama's for sure. Democrats close in on at least two GOP-held House seats.
NORTH CAROLINA (15) -- Polls close in one of Obama's southern targets. GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole trails Kay Hagan consistently in polls. Close gubernatorial contest.
NORTH DAKOTA (3) -- Leaning McCain. Republican Gov. John Hoeven on track for new term.
OHIO (20) -- Obama ahead in late polls in state McCain must win. Democrats on track to pick up at least one House seat.
OKLAHOMA (7) -- McCain's by far. Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe safe for new term.
OREGON (7) -- Obama's an easy winner in mail-in ballot state. Also made a television commercial to help Jeff Merkley, in extremely close race against GOP Sen. Gordon Smith.
PENNSYLVANIA (21) -- Obama ahead in polls in blue state that McCain targeted. Democratic Reps. Paul Kanjorski and John Murtha in jeopardy.
RHODE ISLAND (4) -- Part of Obama's base. Democratic Sen. Jack Reed a sure bet for new term.
SOUTH CAROLINA (8) -- McCain's with ease. Close ally, Sen. Lindsey Graham, on track for re-election.
SOUTH DAKOTA (3) -- McCain country. Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson safe despite lingering speech problems stemming from brain hemorrhage in 2006.
TENNESSEE (11) -- Easy win for McCain. GOP Sen. Lamar Alexander coasting.
TEXAS (34) -- President Bush's home state for McCain. GOP Sen. John Cornyn on track for new term.
UTAH (5) -- As safe as anything can be for McCain. Republican Gov. Jon Huntsman coasting to new term.
VERMONT (3) -- Obama territory. Republican Gov. Jim Douglas favored but race could go to legislature.
VIRGINIA (13) -- Obama seems ahead in traditionally Republican state. Mark Warner should win open GOP Senate seat. Democrats figure to gain at least one seat in House.
WASHINGTON (11) -- Obama with ease. Democratic Gov. Christine Gregoire in tough rematch vs. 2004 foe.
WEST VIRGINIA (5) -- McCain favored, but Obama ran ads late. Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Gov. Joe Manchin safe for new term.
WISCONSIN (10) -- Obama territory. Republicans challenge Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen.
WYOMING (3) -- Safe for McCain. One full Senate term and one partial, both easy GOP victories.