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Warner on cruise control in bid for Senate

By Gary Emerling (Contact) | Wednesday, October 8, 2008

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Barring a setback of major proportions, former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner appears headed for a sweeping victory over Republican rival James S. Gilmore III, also a former governor, in next month's U.S. Senate election.

"Gilmore can't win for trying," said Larry J. Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "It's not his year, and the votes will clearly show that."

Mr. Warner, a Democrat, has traveled a clearly paved path toward the Nov. 4 contest, outpacing Mr. Gilmore in fundraising by millions of dollars and continually leading his competitor by double digits in the polls.

A survey by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc. released last week showed 57 percent of voters favored Mr. Warner, compared with 31 percent who supported Mr. Gilmore.

It is not clear how the runaway race will affect voter turnout for other races, including the presidential contest between Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama - who is trying to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Virginia since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.

Mr. Sabato said the impact of the Warner-Gilmore race on the presidential contest and others in the state depends on how much Mr. Warner's campaign has focused on getting voters to the polls Nov. 4, and if it is targeting constituents who will vote solely for Democrats on the ballot.

Virginia had registered more than 306,000 new voters this year, according to statistics released last week by the State Board of Elections. The deadline to register in the state was Monday.

Mr. Warner also has focused on a message of bringing bipartisanship to Capitol Hill. But it's more likely that voters marking their ballots for Mr. Obama will subsequently vote for Mr. Warner, and not the other way around, Mr. Sabato said.

"You vote for president first, then you vote for Senate and for House," he said. "The very concept of reverse coattails is nonsensical."

The Gilmore campaign has criticized Mr. Warner of trying to protect his lead by canceling one debate and not agreeing to others. Such a strategy would appear worthwhile, considering Mr. Warner emerged largely unscathed from the three head-to-head debates the candidates have staged.