Zardari set to win Pakistan presidency

Asif Ali Zardari is unpopular among many Pakistanis. He has been called corrupt, arrogant, inexperienced and, most recently, mentally ill. But in the six months since his party-led coalition came to power, the widower of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto has strengthened his position with shrewd maneuvers expected to culminate in his election as president on Saturday.

The key question for U.S. policymakers is whether Mr. Zardari, 53, can bring stability to a country that has become a base both for the U.S.-led war on terrorism and for militants menacing Pakistan and the U.S.-backed government in Afghanistan.

Mrs. Bhutto, who opposed Islamist extremism, fell to terrorists’ bullets in December within weeks of returning home from exile. On Wednesday, Pakistan’s prime minister escaped an assassination attempt. Mr. Zardari - who is all but certain to be elected president by Pakistan’s parliament and four provincial assemblies - has backed U.S. policies, thereby exposing himself to similar terrorist threats.

U.S. officials have taken pains to stress that Washington is not taking sides in Pakistani politics - after the New York Times reported last month that Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, had offered Mr. Zardari “help and advice.”

“Our policy is to stay out of Pakistan’s internal affairs,” State Department spokesman Robert Wood told reporters last week. “Pakistan is a close ally. … The United States is there to support Pakistan as it tries to … further consolidate its democracy.”

On Wednesday, Mr. Khalilzad defended his dealings with Pakistani officials as mere social contacts. “I have not provided [Mr. Zardari] with any advice,” he told reporters at the United Nations.

For a man who has never before held elected office, Mr. Zardari has moved nimbly in recent months. He chose a little-known member of his Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Yousuf Raza Gilani, as prime minister while remaining powerful behind the scenes. In a coalition with a longtime rival, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, Mr. Zardari forced out President Pervez Musharraf, who, under U.S. pressure, had allowed the Bhutto family to return from exile.

As president, Mr. Zardari would inherit powers assumed by Mr. Musharraf to fire the prime minister and the Cabinet and dissolve parliament and state legislatures. But that does not necessarily assure long-term stability in a country that has suffered frequent military coups since independence in 1947.

Corruption charges and volatile political realignments could bring a quick shift in the balance of power.

With high inflation and low employment, the economy could become Mr. Zardari’s biggest test.

“Once the survival of the government is settled, it can focus on the pressing issues such as fighting Taliban-led insurgency and the weak economy,” said Teresita C. Schaffer, director of the South Asia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and a former U.S. envoy to Pakistan. “But Zardari is at best untested as a leader and is a relative newcomer to government and electoral politics.”

The military lurks in the background, and Ms. Schaffer said the army does not trust Mr. Zardari.

Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and presidential adviser on South Asia and now a senior fellow at Brookings Institution, said Mr. Zardari has shown “impressive political skill” by getting rid of Mr. Musharraf “with no violence or trouble from the army,” having his man in the prime minister’s office and claiming the presidency.

“What he doesn’t control, however, is the army or [the Inter-Services Intelligence agency]. … So he will be able to govern only on those issues the army lets him tackle.”

Mr. Zardari and his son, Bilawal, a student at Britain’s Oxford University, were elected co-chairmen of the PPP soon after Mrs. Bhutto’s assassination. The party got the largest number of seats in parliament in February elections, but had to form a coalition with Mr. Sharif’s party.

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