Beijing beneficiary of U.S.-Russia rift

Neutrality seen as strategic

By Chris O'Brien | Sunday, September 7, 2008

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BEIJING | As tensions escalate between the United States and Russia over the conflict in the Caucasus, China is a likely beneficiary.

While striving to remain neutral, Beijing could find opportunities to build greater diplomatic muscle, especially through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), analysts say.

At a recent summit of the SCO, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had hoped to secure the support of fellow member countries - China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - for the Russian invasion of Georgia and decision to recognize the independence of the disputed enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Instead, the cautious joint statement released after the conclusion of the meeting in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe reflected China's position: refraining from granting Russia explicit backing but stopping well short of condemnation.

"[We] express grave concern in connection with the recent tensions around the South Ossetian issue and urge the sides to solve existing problems peacefully, through dialogue, and to make efforts facilitating reconciliation and talks," the statement read.

However, it did express support for "Russia's active role in contributing to peace and cooperation in the region" after the cease-fire deal that ended clashes between Russia and Georgia.

Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies in Beijing´s Tsinghua University, said damage to Sino-Russian relations has already been done.

"China has adopted a very neutral stance out of great concern for its relationship with the U.S., other members of the SCO and Europe. They also understand the fear of the other countries neighboring Russia.

"But the SCO statement has undermined the strategic partnership between Russia and China. Russia will suspect China´s sincerity. It needs China´s support badly, but China has remained neutral," Mr. Yan said.

Other political scientists argue that Russia could not have expected China to fully endorse its actions, given China´s unyielding stance on issues of territorial integrity.

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