Beijing beneficiary of U.S.-Russia rift

BEIJING | As tensions escalate between the United States and Russia over the conflict in the Caucasus, China is a likely beneficiary.

While striving to remain neutral, Beijing could find opportunities to build greater diplomatic muscle, especially through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), analysts say.

At a recent summit of the SCO, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev had hoped to secure the support of fellow member countries - China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - for the Russian invasion of Georgia and decision to recognize the independence of the disputed enclaves of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Instead, the cautious joint statement released after the conclusion of the meeting in the Tajik capital of Dushanbe reflected China’s position: refraining from granting Russia explicit backing but stopping well short of condemnation.

“[We] express grave concern in connection with the recent tensions around the South Ossetian issue and urge the sides to solve existing problems peacefully, through dialogue, and to make efforts facilitating reconciliation and talks,” the statement read.

However, it did express support for “Russia’s active role in contributing to peace and cooperation in the region” after the cease-fire deal that ended clashes between Russia and Georgia.

Yan Xuetong, director of the Institute of International Studies in Beijing´s Tsinghua University, said damage to Sino-Russian relations has already been done.

“China has adopted a very neutral stance out of great concern for its relationship with the U.S., other members of the SCO and Europe. They also understand the fear of the other countries neighboring Russia.

“But the SCO statement has undermined the strategic partnership between Russia and China. Russia will suspect China´s sincerity. It needs China´s support badly, but China has remained neutral,” Mr. Yan said.

Other political scientists argue that Russia could not have expected China to fully endorse its actions, given China´s unyielding stance on issues of territorial integrity.

The Chinese government is loath to support any form of separatism, which could be seen to undermine its policies on Tibet, Taiwan or Xinjiang.

While Mr. Yan insists that the conflict in Georgia has only brought China trouble, Dimitri Trenin, deputy director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said the war signals the second time that China has benefited from global strife in the past seven years.

“China has been saved for the second time this decade. The first time was in 2001 when al Qaeda saved it from having to face up to the U.S. This time it has been saved by [Georgian President] Mikhail Saakashvili.

“The relationship between the U.S. and Russia has soured and sunk to even lower depths. It takes the focus off China, and China appreciates this. The situation buys China time to strengthen itself, so by the time China and U.S. come to quarrel again, China will be stronger, and the U.S. will find things more difficult,” he said.

The widening split between Russia and Western powers could also work to China´s advantage when it comes to its future dealings with Russia, he theorized.

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