THOMSON/PINO: Chavez holds Venezuela

COMMENTARY:

Hugo Chavez’s victory in the Feb. 15 referendum that allows him to serve as president of Venezuela for as long as he is elected to six year terms, is remarkable for a number of reasons: The “Yes” vote in favor of the constitutional change removing term limits outnumbered the “No” vote by virtually the same percentage as in the Nov. 7 state and local elections, 55 percent and 45 percent in both elections, not considering fractional differences.

Last Sunday’s vote denotes a decreasing margin between Chavista forces and the opposition; a difference that stood at almost 17 percent in 1998, increased to almost 26 percent in 2006, but slumped to slightly more than 8 percent this past Sunday.

An exceptionally high 70 percent of registered voters cast ballots, roughly 6 million voting “Yes” and 5 million, “No” - the highest number of opposition votes cast in 15 elections during the 10 years since Mr. Chavez was first elected.

The election followed months of governmental preparations, including.

• Adding hundreds of new polling places, which made it impossible for opposition poll watchers to cover a large number of voting sites.

• Using paper ballots at many of the new sites, making it relatively easy to “lose” or otherwise dispose of significant numbers of presumed “No” votes.

• Registering thousands of Colombian and other illegal immigrants after giving them coveted residence visas and ID cards.

• Disallowing registration of thousands of 18 year old first-time-eligible voters.

• Demanding all government employees and contractors vote, virtually sure their ballots would favor the proposal and thus their employment longevity.

• Spending millions in government funds for advertising, demonstrations and voter “reward”programs.

Net: Though Mr. Chavez won, his victory was fatefully marred, very possibly secured by fraud. That said, it remains clear that about 50 percent of the Venezuelan electorate has been duped into democratically authorizing dictatorship. The reasons are twofold: Hugo Chavez and his opponents.

Venezuela’s president has performed the remarkable feat of retaining roughly 50 percent approval ratings, despite popular disgust with his government’s policies. While programs ranging from nationalizations of private corporations to funding sympathetic regimes from Argentina and Bolivia to Honduras and Nicaragua are opposed by as many as 80 percent of Venezuelans, the mercurial, charismatic leader has maintained the support of half the population.

As for the opposition, it remains in major disarray, with one of the few bright sides being the remarkably successful involvement of students in getting out the vote. Indeed, the recordbreaking “No” vote strongly underscored the popular dismay, no matter the multiple opposition inadequacies, including:

(1) No common policy platform that enunciates a positive plan for Venezuela.

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