Worst drought in 50 years hits China

YAOLING, China | In good times, Xi Guojun’s small plot of land produces just enough winter wheat to provide for his family. But these are not good times.

On a dusty, terraced hillside, gazing over his yellowing crop, the 44-year-old farmer wonders how he’ll make it through what has become China’s worst drought in 50 years.

“I have parents, a wife and a daughter to feed,” said Mr. Xi, who has no surplus wheat stocked from previous years. “How am I supposed to do that? If the harvest totally fails, it will be disastrous. Not only will we lose the wheat to sell, we’ll have to buy it just to eat.”

Though light rains fell recently in the Henan provincial village of Yaoling, as a result of government cloud-seeding efforts, it was barely enough to counteract the impact of more than 100 days without rain.

Mr. Xi’s wheat stands at about one-third the height it should have at this time of year. With no access to irrigation, unless more rain comes soon, the crop is likely doomed.

Eight provinces in central and north China have been struck by the drought. The most populous - Henan province, with nearly 100 million people - is among the hardest hit. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 60 percent of Henan’s wheat crop could fail if the drought doesn’t end in the next month.

“We live by the will of the sky,” said He Hongpu, 45, who farms alongside Mr. Xi. “If it doesn’t rain, we will have nothing to eat.”

While no one is predicting the mass starvation that stalked China’s countryside a half century ago, the social safety net is limited. A “rural minimum living allowance” covers only 39 million of China’s 900 million rural workers and goes to those who lack other income sources or who are disabled. Yaoling is categorized as a “rich and healthy village” and so does not appear eligible for such help.

A few miles north of Yaoling, where the soil is better and the average wheat output per acre is double or more, water is available from wells that feed off groundwater, aquifers and irrigation channels coming from the Yellow River.

Many farmers in these areas have had to be encouraged by authorities to irrigate their fields because bumper crops in the past few years have left them with an ample surplus - enough that if their winter wheat fails, they can sell off some of their surplus at a high price.

At the Zhengzhou vegetable market, the largest wholesale produce market in central China, trucks are piled high with vegetables and business is brisk. Walking through the broad lanes between piles of garlic, boxes of tomatoes, huge sacks of Chinese radishes and dozens of other items, it’s hard to fathom that drought afflicts the countryside nearby.

Li Sen, the market manager, says that’s because almost all the produce coming through here at this time of year is from southern China. Supply problems won’t be evident for a few weeks, when much of China’s vegetable production shifts to the north.

“These crops need a lot of water,” said Mr. Li. “I hope the drought ends before the planting season starts. If it doesn’t, the price of vegetables will go up and affect the consumers.”

Zhang, a farmer in Huayuan town on the northwest outskirts of Henan’s largest city, Zhengzhou, estimated that his wheat was about 4 inches shorter than normal for this time of year and that half his crop might be lost.

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