Mubarak’s health fuels anxiety over succession

CAIRO | Ten days after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak underwent surgery in Germany, there is growing uncertainty over his health and increased talk about who will eventually succeed him.

On Tuesday, state television aired footage of the president for the first time since his gall bladder was removed on March 6, showing Mr. Mubarak sitting at a small table in a hospital room and talking to two doctors.

Dr. Markus Buchler, who heads the medical team that performed the surgery, told reporters the president “was upbeat and in very good spirits as usual.”

“I am happy to say that his medical and general condition is improving in a satisfactory manner,” he said.

But there was no indication when Mr. Mubarak, who delegated authority to Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif temporarily, would leave hospital.

Despite the almost daily upbeat statements on the president’s convalescence, anxiety over his health led to a drop on the Egyptian stock exchange. The index fell 2.4 percent on Sunday and 3.8 percent on Monday before clawing back some of the losses on Tuesday with a 1.5 percent gain.

Eissa Fathi, the manager of Strategic Company for Securities, attributed the rise to news that the president was expected to make an appearance on Egyptian television.

“This trend is expected to continue, especially because the drop that happened [on Sunday and Monday] was random,” he said.

Analysts say the president’s health, usually a closely guarded secret that has led to journalists being punished for questioning it, has intensified talk over his eventual succession.

“We face many questions. What would happen if harm befell the president, or whether he could carry out his role until the end of his fifth term,” said Imad Gad, an analyst with the Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies.

Mr. Mubarak, president since 1981, has no vice president. He has not indicated whether he will run for president again next year for a sixth term, only telling a party member at a convention: “God Willing.”

The expression could have been meant either as a yes or a polite evasion. His son Gamal has not commented on widespread speculation that he would succeed his father.

“There is widespread anxiety in Egypt and the drop in the stock exchange indicated that. There is lack of certainty on how power will be transferred and talk on the post-Mubarak period has started,” Mr. Gad said.

Like many analysts, Mr. Gad does not believe 46-year-old Gamal, a former investment banker who now holds an influential policy making post in his father’s National Democratic Party, has much chance of becoming president.

“I doubt the Gamal Mubarak scenario. The security and military apparatuses know there is discontent towards inheritance of power, especially with increased talk of the prodigality of those around him and suspicions of corruption by those around him,” Mr. Gad said.

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