The polls and the pundits both suggest that Republicans are benefiting from a major “enthusiasm gap” over Democrats, with the passion and energy of base GOP voters and “tea party” activists a leading indicator of major Republican gains in November’s midterm elections.
But the turnout figures for the parties’ contests primaries so far paint a more complicated picture.
Democratic turnout plummeted in the trio of primaries in North Carolina, Indiana and Ohio held May 4. Fewer Ohio Democrats turned out this month for a hard-fought Senate primary won by Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher than turned out four years ago when none of the major races were competitive.
On the other side of the aisle, Republican turnout in North Carolina May 4 rose 9 percent, even though Sen. Richard M. Burr was assured of renomination.
But top Democrats, such as party Chairman Tim Kaine, have noted that two weeks later, in Kentucky, widely heralded Republican Senate primary winner Rand Paul actually received roughly 20,000 fewer votes than both Democratic primary winner Jack Conway, the state’s attorney general, and his opponent, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo. Moreover, 520,992 people voted for in the Democratic race, compared with 352,218 in the Republican primary.
While Democrats enjoy a 3-to-2 registration edge in the state, Mr. Kaine nevertheless argued, “That tells me something about Democratic energy that is a little bit different that what some are saying.”
Primary turnout is not an infallible predictor of general election success, and private analysts still see the Republicans with a clear edge in the motivation of their base this fall.
“Republicans still have the voter enthusiasm,” said Jessica Levinson, of the nonpartisan Center for Governmental Studies, which is based in Los Angeles. “It’s an historical trend when one party controls the White House and Congress. But I’d be more concerned about the Rand Paul vote. Anti-establishment is the real voter energy.”
Democratic strategist Ben Tulchin of the San Francisco-based Tulchin Research group agreed, although he said the gap appeared to have narrowed recently.
“As a Democrat, I’m somewhat concerned about the gap, but I feel better now than in January,” he said. Sen. Scott Brown’s triumph in the special election in Massachusetts for the Senate seat held for nearly a half-century by Democrat Edward M. Kennedy “shows what can happen when Democrats are uninspired.”
Mr. Tulchin also predicted the push by congressional Democrats to pass Wall Street regulatory reforms could help the party mobilize its core supporters.
A new Gallup Poll released Tuesday found the Republicans clinging to a clear but shrinking edge in the enthusiasm of its base voters, although passion among party regulars appears to be falling across the board.
The poll found that 39 percent of Republican voters report being “very enthusiastic” about the midterm elections, compared with just 25 percent of Democrats.
But the poll also found Republican enthusiasm waning from a high of 54 percent around the time the Democrat-controlled Congress passed President Obama’s massive health care overhaul package. Democrats - who have consistently trailed in the enthusiasm measure this year - are also down 10 percentage points from April.
The importance of turnout has already been demonstrated vividly in the special House election for the seat long held by the now-deceased Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha. Republicans had high hopes of winning the seat, but Democrat Mark Critz defied the polls by cruising to an easy seven percentage point victory.
Analysts say GOP challenger Tim Burns was hurt in part because of unexpectedly high Democratic turnout, a byproduct of the interest generated within the party for the primary race being held the same day between Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak, in which Mr. Specter lost his seat after five terms in office.
Democratic turnout in Mr. Murtha’s district for the May 18 race was 20,000 higher than anticipated, helping boost Mr. Critz to victory.
“That wasn’t a huge surprise because that was a major battle,” said Dan Judy, a vice president with Republican strategists Ayres McHenry & Associates Inc.
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