TAUBE: Turmoil in British election?

OPINION:

The election in the United Kingdom is going to be one for the record books. The BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll appears to show two unique shifts in the political landscape - the first “hung Parliament” (no party with a majority of seats) since 1974 and a possible end to the 13-year reign by the left-leaning Labor Party.

It sure didn’t seem a year ago that that was going to happen.

Back then, Tory leader David Cameron was riding high in the polls. His party had strategically shifted from its Churchillian and Thatcherite roots and initiated a “modern compassionate conservative” platform. Mr. Cameron was supportive of tax cuts, a free-market economy and increased deregulation, but he also puzzlingly called for a carbon tax, an inheritance tax and even a possible increase in public spending.

While Mr. Cameron likely didn’t make many conservative friends with these positions, he felt he had tapped into something.

In a 2005 interview with the Guardian newspaper, he said, “I’m not a deeply ideological person - I’m a practical person, and pragmatic.” Many people sympathized with Mr. Cameron’s position, tired of seeing the same sort of partisan politician coming out of the meat grinder. In time, conservatives in other countries - including Angela Merkel in Germany, Nicolas Sarkozy in France, Stephen Harper in Canada, and John McCain and Sarah Palin in the United States - were doing exactly the same thing.

For Labor Prime Minister Gordon Brown, this was a stunning and upsetting development. After 10 years in the shadow of the magnanimous Tony Blair, he finally had a chance to lead Britain. But with some political leaders, after they fight and struggle to reach the pinnacle of success, they collapse under the weight of the effort.

For example, Mr. Brown was blamed for the global economic crisis because, as Mr. Blair’s chancellor of the exchequer, he hadn’t established proper monetary reserves to protect the United Kingdom’s financial house. Many backbench Labor members of Parliament revolted against him in 2008 after he supported a 42-day detention period for suspected terrorists. As well, the elimination of the 10 percent starting tax rate (which he passed as exchequer) and shift to the 20 percent level caused financial distress for low-income earners.

That being said, Mr. Brown chipped into Mr. Cameron’s sizable lead. A small increase in gross domestic product, a more stable economy and less grumbling from his backbenches all helped. Plus, there were growing concerns about Mr. Cameron’s performance when he veered off script and about whether the Tories would actually handle the country any better than Labor.

Mr. Brown, therefore, saw a good opportunity to call an election, but everything went downhill in a hurry.

First, there was the unforeseen rise of Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats. The centrist party - a schizophrenic mix of left-leaning welfare liberals and right-leaning business liberals - had been in the political wilderness for decades. But its dynamic leader began to find his range with strong performances in the leadership debates. People started to seriously consider the Liberal Democrats as a viable option, opening the door to a three-way race. But the BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll seems to show that the short-lived fascination with the Liberal Democrats may have come to a crashing halt.

Second, the Tories maintained strong support levels throughout the campaign. Mr. Cameron’s focus was to recapture “Middle England,” the voting base that had abandoned the Tories in the 1990s for other political parties. His message of moderate conservative values, such as cutting the deficit, resonated with the public, helped him win the final leadership debate and picked up some key constituencies.

Third, Mr. Brown’s campaign was a disaster. He was blasted on the campaign trail for things like letting the economy tank, dropping the ball on crime and punishment and taking a weak stance on Iraq and Afghanistan. He was crushed in the leadership debates and looked lost at times. He was caught on a live microphone privately calling a 66-year-old pensioner “a sort of bigoted woman.” A Labor candidate, Manish Sood, embarrassingly called Mr. Brown the country’s worst prime minister. Simply put, it was a communications nightmare for Labor.

Yet the twists and turns of the election aren’t quite over. If no party obtains a parliamentary majority due to a hung Parliament, a coalition government must be formed. Will the Tories and Liberal Democrats combine efforts to throw out Labor? Will Labor and the Liberal Democrats unite to keep a left-of-center government in place?

Stay tuned, folks. It’s not over by a long shot.

Michael Taube is a former speechwriter for Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.