Russ Feingold seemed as well-positioned as any Senate Democratic incumbent to fend off a Republican challenge this year. The Wisconsinite is pro-gun in a hunting-happy state, has a history of voting against his party - including rejecting the unpopular TARP Wall Street bailout - and has avoided even a hint of personal scandal.
Yet the three-term senator who portrays himself as a principled maverick in a state where neither major party dominates trails political newcomer Ron Johnson, an Oshkosh businessman, by a significant margin in the polls. And with just over three weeks to go before the Nov. 2 midterm elections, many political analysts say the race now is the challenger’s to lose.
“The problem that [Mr. Feingold] is facing this year is that voting against [the Wall Street bailout] and voting for guns is not going to be something that wins conservative voters for him,” said Charles H. Franklin, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin at Madison.
“Guns and TARP really aren’t very effective appeals to mute Johnson’s appeal to the same set of conservative Republican and moderate voters.”
The vote against the bailout might help, but Mr. Feingold also supported two key pillars of the Obama agenda the health care overhaul and the $814 billion economic stimulus plan that have not proved to be popular this campaign season.
“In spite of an occasional token vote against the Democratic Party consensus, he is quite clearly a liberal Democrat,” said John C. McAdams, a political science professor at Milwaukee’s Marquette University.
The senator also doesn’t have a major “signature” legislative achievement this year like he did in 2004, when he campaigned on what was then the generally popular “McCain-Feingold” campaign-finance reform bill.
The candidates faced off Friday in Milwaukee in their first debate, an event with few surprises as both candidates largely stuck to their campaign scripts.
“The big thing is, we finally get control of the insurance companies,” he told reporters after the debate.
Mr. Johnson, who has said the main reason he entered the race was to help repeal the law, countered that the nation’s health care system was already the finest in the world and needed only minor improvements.
“If the Republicans take over one of the houses of Congress, they start writing the replacement bills from Day One so we can show the American people, ‘This is what we intend to do,’ ” he said.
Polls reflect a clear edge for the challenger. An average of recent surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics.com give Mr. Johnson a 9-percentage-point lead. A Rasmussen Reports poll taken Sept. 29 had Mr. Feingold trailing 54 percent to 42 percent, the biggest margin of the campaign.
Even the Democrat-leaning Public Policy Polling showed an 11-point disadvantage for the incumbent in a mid-September survey for the liberal website Daily Kos.
Meanwhile, Mr. Johnson, 55, who owns a successful plastics company and who never before has run for office, is being given credit for orchestrating an aggressive and confident campaign.View Entire Story
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Sean Lengell covers Congress and national politics and can be reached at email@example.com.
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