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Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, said he still has a lot to learn about Mr. Trump´s politics; however, he is under the impression that Mr. Trump plans to sign ATR’s no-new-tax pledge.

“If he is going to be running on a no-tax-increase platform and wants to run as a Reagan Republican, I think that would be good news,” he said. “I think he enlivens the race and raised the visibility, and if he has written and said things in the past, it’s fair to call him on it, and he needs to speak to it.”

John Zogby, an independent national pollster, said the big question for Mr. Trump is whether he is willing to go through the political grind necessary to be taken seriously in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

“Is Donald Trump going to want to subject himself to clusters of three people, coffee klatches of 14? Are we going to see him stay in a Motel 6 and survive on cold turkey sandwiches?” he said. “If he is willing to do all that, all bets are off.”

Mr. Zogby, like Mr. Rasmussen, predicted there’s “very little chance Donald Trump stays a serious candidate.”

“Somehow, landing the big plane, with the entourage, the Beaujolais, that’s not made to order for Iowa or New Hampshire,” Mr. Zogby said.