- GOP: Environmental rules keeping agents from accessing border
- John Kerry: Millions displaced by religious fighting in 2013
- Federal appeals court rules against Virginia’s same-sex marriage ban
- White House says Russia ‘losing’ war in Ukraine
- Hamas turns to North Korea for weapons deal, Iran for money
- Syrian casualties surge as jihadis consolidate
- U.N. rights chief: Flight MH17 downing possible war crime
- Attack on park in Gaza war kills 10, mostly children
- Calif. protesters to block Israel-owned ships at Port of Oakland
- Obama to give Africa $38M, but tells young leaders: Stop ‘making excuses’ for economy
Bettors put money on Obama to win re-election
Question of the Day
He said these betting markets are a great way to gauge the election, because people vote with their money, which reveals how much confidence they have in each candidate.
However, while these political betting markets offer gamblers a financial incentive to vote with their money, that doesn’t guarantee completely accurate results, he said. These markets can be manipulated by campaign supporters, for example, who choose to spend some of their money here rather than on advertisements, by voting for their preferred candidate, even if they think he will lose, simply to make his numbers look better. Mr. Rothschild warned this may be happening with the Intrade market in favor of Mr. Romney.
“We’ve seen evidence that Intrade can be manipulated downward in the direction of Romney, almost as cheap advertising for the campaign,” Mr. Rothschild explained. “There’s a chance there are investors who are intentionally moving Intrade further toward Romney than the general population trader believes.”
Mr. Rothschild said this can be seen in Mr. Romney’s numbers shooting up directly after debates before leveling off. Mr. Rothschild was careful to point out that he believes neither campaign is behind these efforts, however, it may be coming from supporters.
Betfair is a larger market, so it is more difficult to manipulate. Furthermore, Intrade is more widely recognized in the U.S. “So if you wanted to move one market, you would move Intrade,” he said. “Betfair is more obscure, so you would get less benefit from it.”
Polling numbers on all of these sites are expected to fluctuate throughout the day. The numbers in this story were updated around 7 p.m. EST on Monday.
© Copyright 2014 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.
About the Author
Tim Devaney is a national reporter who covers business and international trade for The Washington Times. Previously, he worked for the Detroit News, Grand Rapids Press, Portland Press Herald and Bangor Daily News. Tim can be reached at email@example.com.
- Dysfunction, disarray at Homeland Security management cited in IG's report
- GM's Barra to be first woman to run top American carmaker
- Treasury sells last shares in 'Government Motors'
- U.S. businesses reach out quickly to partners in Iran
- General Motors ending Chevrolet sales in Europe to focus on Opel and Vauxhall
Latest Blog Entries
TWT Video Picks
By Mark Davis
The nation founders, the Lone Star State thrives
- Hillary Clinton: Forget Obama, George W. Bush made her 'proud to be an American'
- Illegal immigrants demand representation in White House meetings
- D.C. police chief orders officers not to arrest legal gun owners carrying weapons in public
- Tennessee Gov. Haslam slams White House for secret dump of illegals in his state
- CURL: Obama, staffers not even pretending any more
- Family of Marine killed in Afghanistan pushes back against cover-up
- 'Pocket drones': U.S. Army developing tiny spies for the next big war
- DeSean Jackson working on offensive cohesiveness with Redskins teammates
- Washington Times strikes content and marketing partnership with Redskins
- D.C. seeks stay in order striking down ban on handguns in public
Obama's biggest White House 'fails'
Celebrities turned politicians
Athletes turned actors
20 gadgets that changed the world
Fighting in Iraq