The average pollster is either biased or has terrible gut instincts. I have a history of predicting political winners and losers without ever taking a poll. I just take the pulse of the thousands of people I know from my background in sports (as a Las Vegas oddsmaker), business (as a CEO) and politics (as the former Libertarian vice presidential nominee, a conservative columnist and media personality). What I see and hear is a coming Mitt Romney landslide.
I have made a number of correct political predictions in the past.
For instance, in November 2004, just days before the presidential election, I predicted on CNBC a George W. Bush victory by 3 points and 30 electoral votes. Every poll at the time showed Sen. John F. Kerry in the lead. Mr. Bush won by 3 and 35. Newsmax called it the most accurate prediction of the 2004 presidential election.
In June 2012, when experts forecast a defeat for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in his recall election, I predicted a Walker landslide victory of 7 to 10 points. He won by 7 despite reported Democratic voter irregularities.
I have been predicting a Romney victory from the beginning. In December 2011, I predicted Mr. Romney would win the GOP presidential nomination and go on to win the presidency. In spring 2012, after Mr. Romney clinched the GOP nomination, I predicted a Romney landslide victory in November. For the past month, as Mr. Romney has trailed badly in every poll, especially in the all-important battleground states, I have continued to predict a Romney landslide. Today, I’m making it official:
Mitt Romney will win the presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5- to 7-point popular-vote victory, with an outside shot at 10 points. Electorally, it won’t be that close. Mr. Romney will win many states that went to Mr. Obama in 2008 — I predict wins in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Indiana. I predict he will win by 100 to 120 electoral votes. I’ll go out on a limb and say Mr. Romney even will win one or two Democratic “safe states” such as Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Jersey.
In the days before the first presidential debate, polls showed Mr. Romney trailing badly in most of those states. The polls are wrong. They are badly skewed toward Democrats. Despite these polls, Mr. Romney won the most lopsided victory in presidential debate history.
Here are the reasons why I predict a Romney victory:
The news media are ignoring signs of mass disgust with Mr. Obama. In the West Virginia Democratic primary, a felon got 40 percent of the vote against Mr. Obama. In deep-blue Massachusetts and Connecticut, GOP Senate candidates are even or leading in recent polls. In pro-union Wisconsin, Scott Walker won by a country mile. Worst of all for Mr. Obama, several recent polls show Mr. Romney competitive in Illinois — Mr. Obama’s home state — with Mr. Romney winning in the suburbs of Mr. Obama’s Chicago. Even in Cook County, the country’s biggest Democratic stronghold, Mr. Romney leads by double digits among independents (43-31) and white voters (53-40).
In 2008, Democrats controlled a majority of governorships. Today, Republicans control the majority of governorships. Presidential elections are always steered in each state by the party of the governor, the most powerful force in state politics.
After the 2010 census, electoral votes were added to states that usually lean Republican in elections: Texas, Florida, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina and Utah. Deep-blue states such as New York, New Jersey, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota and Massachusetts lost electoral votes.
Follow the money trail. Yes, Mr. Obama is raising plenty of money, although some suspect it’s coming from illegal foreign contributors. Still, what happened in 2008, when Mr. Obama outspent Sen. John McCain 10-1, won’t happen in 2012. Mr. Romney will be even with Mr. Obama in the last two weeks of the election.
Christians will turn out in record numbers this year. Mr. Obama has offended Christians repeatedly. Last election, 20 million evangelical Christians did not vote. They will turn out in record numbers in 2012 to defeat the most anti-Christian president in U.S. history. Just recall the long lines at Chick-fil-A in August. I predict you’ll see those same lines on Election Day.
Voter rolls have been purged in 2012 of felons and illegals in many states — particularly Florida and Ohio. Turnout of Democrats will be nothing like in 2008.
The “enthusiasm factor” for Mr. Romney is huge. Conservatives are focused, intense, motivated and enthusiastic. Democrats who turned out for Mr. Obama in record numbers in 2008 are demoralized. I know several people who voted for him in 2008 but won’t do so again.
Finally, history proves that a majority of undecided voters break for the challenger. Mr. Romney will take most of the undecided voters on Election Day — just as Ronald Reagan did against Jimmy Carter in 1980.
I predict the same result: Mitt Romney will win in a landslide.
If I’m wrong, God help the United States of America.
Wayne Allyn Root, former Libertarian vice presidential nominee, is author of “The Conscience of a Libertarian: Empowering the Citizen Revolution With God, Guns, Gold, Gambling & Tax Cuts” (Wiley, 2009). He writes at RootForAmerica.com.
By Douglas Holtz-Eakin
The young drop coverage to avoid higher premiums