Democrats are counting on their New England friends to help them pick up Republican-held Senate seats on Nov. 6 and construct a barrier against losses in Nebraska and elsewhere that could erase their majority.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee has stopped spending money in Maine, where former Gov. Angus King, an independent, leads in the polls and is seen as likely to side with Democrats if he wins. In Massachusetts, Republican Sen. Scott P. Brown is suddenly considered the underdog against Elizabeth Warren as the state is poised to easily back President Obama over former Gov. Mitt Romney for president.
Republican hopes of swiping the seat in Connecticut are fading. Democratic Rep. Christopher S. Murphy has steadied his campaign against former wrestling executive Linda McMahon, who spent $50 million on an unsuccessful bid in 2010 and $42.6 million and counting this year. Mrs. McMahon’s less-than-stellar debate performances and the state’s Democratic tilt have undercut the GOP candidate’s prospects.
“If New England could tip the Senate’s balance to the Republicans, it would be fairly earth-shattering,” said Rob Gray, a veteran GOP consultant in Massachusetts. “The real question is whether these races will be close-but-no-cigar for Republicans.”
In Senate math, the loss of two seats in New England complicates the GOP calculation for majority control. Republicans would have to gain a net of six seats while holding suddenly uncertain Indiana, or a net of five seats if Mr. Romney wins the presidency. Democrats currently have the edge 53-47, including two independents who caucus with the party.
On the Election Day ballot are 23 Democratic seats and 10 Republican ones.
Republicans are optimistic they can make it add up and they point to fresh enthusiasm for Mr. Romney and the party ticket. After weeks of pure tossups, Republicans say North Dakota and Wisconsin are trending GOP though still close, Montana remains tight and the contest in Ohio has narrowed, due in large part to the roughly $20 million in negative ads against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.
In a late move, the GOP invested $500,000 in Pennsylvania, where some polls show a tight race between first-term Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. and tea-party backed businessman Tom Smith, who has invested more than $16 million into his bid. The state has been considered safe Democratic for much of the year.
Republicans and Democrats expect Nebraska to switch to the GOP despite the candidacy of former Sen. Bob Kerrey, and Virginia to stay close, with the outcome of the presidential election crucial to the final count.
That’s not so in Florida. Mr. Romney has grabbed a slight lead in polling, but there are no signs that it has helped Republican Rep. Connie Mack in his race to unseat two-term Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. In the most telling development, outside Republican groups bailed on the Senate race at the beginning of October and there is no indication they will resume spending in the closing days.
Guy Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said he was cautiously optimistic about Democrats holding their majority.
“Frankly a lot in our own party gave us little chance to be competitive this cycle, in large part because they were looking at a map where we had two times as many Democratic seats and we were coming off the worse election cycle for Democrats in 75 years,” Mr. Cecil said. “Certainly despite that fact and the fact that we had seven retirements, we are in a stronger position today than at any point in the cycle.”
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