President Obama is counting on Kim Kardashian to help get his voters to the polls this fall, while Mitt Romney is betting heavily on Drew Carey and his audience on “The Price Is Right.”
In an age of specialized cable-TV networks and minutely targeted messages, where every viewer’s mouse click or channel change leaves a digital footprint that marketers can track, political consultants and ad sales representatives have learned that it is not how many people you reach, it’s who those people are — and what those people like to watch.
To an unprecedented degree, an analysis by The Washington Times has found, both presidential campaigns this year are tailoring their messages and their ad buys to specific audiences through analysis about which television programs are likely to reach their supporters and motivate them to get to the polls.
The result: a fascinating collision of pop culture and political strategy. Shows featuring singing and dancing, such as Fox’s “Glee,” are favored by Democrats, and commercial time during NASCAR racing is more likely to reflect Republican views, an exhaustive review of recent broadcasting disclosures showed.
Venerable game shows, while barely registering as blips in modern pop culture, remain among the top destinations for political ads because of their largely older base of viewers who are likely to go to the polls. “The Price Is Right” is second among all TV shows for Romney ads and third for spots for Mr. Obama. “Jeopardy,” another long-running warhorse of the game-show genre, ranks fourth among all political advertisers.
The sophisticated targeting of the 2012 campaign exposed what was a dirty little secret of bygone TV ad wars. In the past, competing campaigns would release a deluge of political ads in the campaign’s closing days on many of the same shows, with the money spent producing more or less a stalemate. With both campaigns reaching the same viewers on the same shows roughly the same number of times, the net benefit for either side was close to zero.
Republicans are at an extreme disadvantage when it comes to television advertising because Democrats watch more TV. In fact, every single genre of programming has a Democratic-leaning audience, with sports coming the closest to a partisan balance.
As a result, only one in five political ads during baseball games is for a Democratic candidate, while nearly every political ad during the adult cartoon series “Family Guy” is for a Democrat, according to The Times’ analysis, which included the major broadcast networks in the top 50 markets.
Republicans have tried to overcome the viewership gap by advertising more in general. More important, though, shows with the closest balance of Republican and Democratic viewers, such as sports and documentaries, have audiences that are far more inclined to vote.
“It’s not just the partisanship of the viewers of that program, but [whether] the viewers of this program are likely to vote. You’ve got a really Democratic audience for reality-dating programs, but they’re not all that likely to vote because they’re young,” said Travis N. Ridout, a political science professor at Washington State University.
In the new microtargeted advertising world, two types of ads are aired to distinct audiences: those designed to persuade the small slice of voters who are truly undecided, and those that cater to an audience that sympathizes with a given party but rarely bothers to go to the polls.
Democrats are advertising during daytime shows watched by high numbers of unemployed people, including those who rely on welfare and other social services supported by that party, records suggest.
“What shows do the unemployed watch? If you want to stereotype, it’s whatever’s on at 3 a.m., or ‘Jerry Springer’ or ‘Maury Povich,’” said Tim Kay of NCC Media, a sales and research company for the cable-TV industry.
All “Jerry Springer” ads have been for Democrats, and just a quarter of those aired on Mr. Povich’s show have been from Republicans. Mr. Obama has advertised heavily on such shows, which also include courtroom reality shows such as “Judge Judy” and those whose viewers include large numbers of black voters. Those viewers already support Mr. Obama, but he needs to excite them enough to cast a ballot.