Recent steps taken by the government of Turkey suggest it may be ready to ditch the NATO club of democracies for a Russian and Chinese gang of authoritarian states.
Here is the evidence:
Starting in 2007, Ankara applied three times, unsuccessfully, to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (informally known as the Shanghai Five). Founded in 1996 by the Russian and Chinese governments, along with three former Soviet Central Asian states (a fourth was added in 2001), the SCO has received little attention in the West, although it has grand security and other aspirations, including the possible creation of a gas cartel. More, it offers an alternative to the Western model, from NATO to democracy to the U.S. dollar as reserve currency. After being rejected for membership on the third try, Ankara applied for "Dialogue Partner" status in 2011. In June 2012, it won approval.
One month later, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan reported that he had said to Russia's President Vladimir Putin, "Come, accept us into the Shanghai Five [as a full member] and we will reconsider the European Union." Mr. Erdogan reiterated this idea on Jan. 25, noting stalled Turkish efforts to join the European Union: "As the prime minister of 75 million people," he explained, "you start looking around for alternatives. That is why I told Mr. Putin the other day, 'Take us into the Shanghai Five; do it, and we will say goodbye to the EU.' What's the point of stalling?" He added that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization "is much better, it is much more powerful [than the EU], and we share values with its members."
On Jan. 31, the Foreign Ministry announced plans for an upgrade to "Observer State" at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. On Feb. 3, Mr. Erdogan reiterated his earlier point, saying, "We will search for alternatives," and praised the Shanghai group's "democratization process" while disparaging European "Islamophobia." On Feb. 4, President Abdullah Gul pushed back, declaring, "The SCO is not an alternative to the EU. ... Turkey wants to adopt and implement EU criteria."
What does this all amount to?
The SCO feint faces significant obstacles: While Ankara leads the effort to overthrow Bashar Assad, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization firmly supports the beleaguered Syrian leader. NATO troops have just arrived in Turkey to staff Patriot batteries protecting that country from Syria's Russian-made missiles. More profoundly, all six SCO members strongly oppose the Islamism that Mr. Erdogan espouses. Perhaps, therefore, Mr. Erdogan mentioned SCO membership only to pressure the European Union or to offer symbolic rhetoric for his supporters.
Both are possible. I take the half-year-long flirtation seriously for three reasons. First, Mr. Erdogan has established a record of straight talk, leading one key columnist, Sedat Ergin, to call the Jan. 25 statement perhaps his "most important" foreign policy proclamation ever.
Second, as Turkish columnist Kadri Gursel points out, "The EU criteria demand democracy, human rights, union rights, minority rights, gender equality, equitable distribution of income, participation and pluralism for Turkey. SCO as a union of countries ruled by dictators and autocrats will not demand any of those criteria for joining." Unlike the European Union, Shanghai members will not press Mr. Erdogan to liberalize, but will encourage the dictatorial tendencies in him that so many Turks already fear.
Third, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization fits his Islamist impulse to defy the West and to dream of an alternative to it. The SCO, with Russian and Chinese as official languages, has a deeply anti-Western DNA, and its meetings bristle with anti-Western sentiments. For example, when Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad addressed the group in 2011, no one contradicted his conspiracy theory that Sept. 11 was a U.S. government inside job used "as an excuse for invading Afghanistan and Iraq and for killing and wounding over a million people." Many backers echo Egyptian analyst Galal Nassar in his hope that ultimately the Shanghai Cooperation Organization "will have a chance of settling the international contest in its favor." Conversely, as a Japanese official has noted, "The SCO is becoming a rival bloc to the U.S. alliance. It does not share our values."
Turkish steps toward joining the Shanghai group highlight Ankara's now-ambivalent membership in NATO, starkly symbolized by the unprecedented joint Turkish-Chinese air exercise of 2010. Given this reality, Mr. Erdogan's Turkey is no longer a trustworthy partner for the West, but more like a mole in its inner sanctum. If not expelled, it should at least be suspended from NATO.
Daniel Pipes (DanielPipes.org) is president of the Middle East Forum.