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The sixth factor is 2014’s midterm election — just a year away when the next fiscal debate gets serious. Last time, the nearest election was behind them. Now, a quickly approaching election will heavily influence the debate.

The final factor is the economy. Still weak with last year’s gross domestic growth at just 2.2 percent, the first quarter of 2013 at 1.8 percent and unemployment at 7.6 percent, both sides will blame the other’s fiscal preferences. Mr. Obama will renew his attack on sequestration’s spending cuts and Republicans will label this year’s tax hikes as the reason for slow growth.

Although we have been lulled into a false sense of security during the first half of 2013, this does not eliminate the ample reasons why the upcoming fiscal confrontation could surpass those previously seen during the Obama presidency.

Just as hurricane season is now stirring above the ocean waters, a fiscal storm is soon to build inside the Beltway. Both suggest the need to keep a weather eye on the horizon.

J.T. Young served in the Treasury Department and the Office of Management and Budget from 2001 to 2004 and as a Congressional staff member from 1987 to 2000).