The 2008 House elections

OPINION:

Ten months out, one of the factors in the 2008 House elections guaranteed to favor a Democratic Party consolidation following the 2006 wave is “terrain.” While it is surely far too early to make definitive judgments about the vote itself, a rash of Republican retirements in competitive districts has left the party standing on unmistakably defensive terrain for 2008. Questions of finance and turnout aside, this brings significant opportunities for Democrats to seize a larger majority.

Most strikingly, of the 13 open seats rated competitive last week by the nonpartisan election-watchers at the Cook Political Report, all but one are held by Republicans. Having so many open seats to defend in competitive districts — which are the softest of targets and the likeliest to swing in the event of a “wave” or “consolidation” year — spells a problem for the GOP, since it spreads money and resources thinner on the margin.

About the only good “terrain” news for Republicans this year is the fact that, because of the 2006 Democratic wave, only four freshman Republican lawmakers hold competitive seats which the party will need to defend. This compares to 26 freshman Democrats in comparable uncertainty. Of course, even here, the history of post-wave elections shows that many and in some cases a great many wave freshmen survive into a second term and beyond.

Here are the 13 Republican-held open seats likely to be hotly contested, followed by another nine notably vulnerable Republican House incumbents, some scandalized, many simply sitting atop Democratic-trending districts. In another editorial, we will examine the 26 Democratic freshmen whom Republicans must challenge aggressively if they are to avoid a wipeout:

Arizona, First District: In August, news of a federal investigation into his business ties caused Republican Rep. Rick Renzi to call it quits for next year. But Republican state Rep. Bill Konopnicki, the choice of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), announced two weeks ago that he will not be running, leaving questions about this seat’s future.

Illinois, 11th District: In September, 7-term Rep. Jerry Weller announced that he would retire from this suburban Chicago seat amid a cloud of financial and land-deal questions. The winner of the Feb. 5 Republican primary will face Democratic Illinois Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson, who has no primary opponent. Watch for coattails if Sen. Barack Obama wins the Democratic presidential nomination.

Illinois 14th District: A March 8 special election will decide who fills the remainder of former Speaker of the House Rep. Dennis Hastert’s final term. The 20-year House veteran resigned in November. This district leans Republican, but watch for the Obama factor here, also.

Illinois 18th District: Three Republicans are vying to replace the seven-term Rep. Ray LaHood, who announced his retirement last summer, in a district which leans Republican but is also subject to the Obama factor.

Louisiana 6th District: Less than three weeks separate the Jan. 15 news of Rep. Richard Baker’s retirement to join the Managed Funds Association from his departure date, which is rapidly approaching on Feb. 2. Gov. Bobby Jindal will soon schedule a special election in this Republican-leaning district.

Minnesota 3rd District: The retiring moderate Rep. Jim Ramstad, who has occupied this seat since 1991, leaves open a swing district in which President Bush beat John Kerry by three percentage points in 2004.

New Jersey 3rd District: The retirement of 12-term Rep. Jim Saxton creates a top Democratic opportunity in this North Jersey district. President Bush carried it with 51 percent in 2004.

New Jersey 7th District : Four-term Rep. Mike Ferguson barely defeated his Democratic challenger Linda Stender in 2006. His retirement from this North Jersey seat opens another Democratic opportunity in the Garden State.

New Mexico 2nd District: All three of New Mexico’s House members (two Republicans, one Democrat) are giving up their seats to pursue the retiring Sen. Pete Domenici’s in the Senate. Rep. Steve Pearce, elected in 2002, leaves a Republican-leaning district.

New Mexico First District: Rep. Heather Wilson, like Rep. Pearce, is leaving her House seat for a Senate bid. The 5-term Mrs. Wilson, Congress’ only female military veteran, barely won re-election in 2006. She leaves a district leaning slightly Democratic.

Ohio 15th District: Retiring eight-term Rep. Deborah Pryce won by just over 1,000 votes in 2006 in this Columbus district. Republicans have held the seat every year since 1955, except for a four-year interregnum in the 1960s, but the district is rated highly competitive.

Ohio 16th District: The second-longest-serving Republican member of the House, Rep. Ralph Regula, will step down this cycle. This northeastern Ohio district leans Republican but is rated competitive in Mr. Regula’s absence.

Sole competitive Democrat-held open seat: The death of Democratic Rep. Julia Carson last month created the only Democratic open seat rated competitive by election-watchers. But the late Mrs. Carson’s district, which covers Indianapolis, leans Democratic and will be less competitive than most or all Republican-held open seats.

Vulnerable Republican incumbents:

Alaska at-large: A federal investigation into Rep. Don Young’s conduct in office has thrown this previously rock-solid Republican seat into uncertainty.

Connecticut 4th District: Moderate 12-term Rep. Christopher Shays is now New England’s last House Republican. He won by three percentage points in a Democratic-leaning district.

Illinois 10th: Four-term Rep. Mark Kirk won re-election by a 53-47 percent margin in 2006 in a Democratic-leaning district in Chicago’s north suburbs. Watch for a coattail effect if Sen. Barack Obama wins the Democratic presidential nomination.

Michigan 7th: Freshman Rep. Tim Walberg won with just under 50 percent of the vote in 2006 in a southern Michigan district which leans Republican.

Nevada 3rd: Three-term Rep. Jon Porter won re-election in 2006 with 48 percent of the vote over Democrat Tessa Hafen, who gained 47 percent. In a district leaning slightly Democratic, a strong challenge seems likely.

New York 25th: Rep. Jim Walsh, an 18-year incumbent, is likely to face a challenge in this upstate New York district stretching from Syracuse to the Rochester suburbs.

New York 29: Two-term Rep. Randy Kuhl barely won re-election last cycle. In a Republican-leaning district, Mr. Kuhl almost lost amid swirling domestic-dispute allegations.

Pennsylvania 6th: Three-term Rep. Jim Gerlach was the only “Philly Trio” Republican to survive the 2006 wave. His suburban Philadelphia district leans Democratic.

Washington 8th: Two-term Rep. Dave Reichert carried 51 percent of the vote in this rural but Democratic-leaning district which Al Gore and John Kerry carried in 2000 and 2004, respectively.