NEW YORK — A U.N. political mission will arrive in Baghdad soon for a listening, and perhaps prodding, tour of Iraqi leaders who, just 90 days before the return of sovereignty, still do not agree on how an interim government will be selected.
A small group led by veteran U.N. diplomat Lakhdar Brahimi will visit with religious, ethnic and political leaders, prominent Iraqi professionals and foreign diplomats in an increasingly desperate effort to build consensus.
The United Nations has refused to release any part of the itinerary, out of fear for the group’s safety. But U.S. officials, and many Iraqi leaders, seem to be waiting for guidance from the United Nations as they plan the details of a transition that, as of now, has only one fixed element: a midsummer turnover.
“June 30 is the deadline, immutable,” said one State Department official. “We are running out of time.”
U.S. officials note that Mr. Brahimi, a secular Sunni who helped steer Afghanistan down the pitted road toward democracy, has better contacts and more latitude in reaching out to religious and political figures in Iraq than they do.
In particular, the officials are hopeful that he will be able to prod Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani, the revered and outspoken Shi’ite cleric, toward accepting a transitional government that does not spring from direct elections.
“We hope for any sign from Sistani or others that they are becoming worried by the passage of time and they want to do something to speed the selection of the caretaker government,” an official said.
With a popular election logistically impossible in the time remaining, few options are gathering obvious support, said concerned U.S. officials, U.N. experts and diplomats this week.
“I wonder if they think they can just hand over the keys to the palace and drive away,” said one diplomat whose nation opposed the war, “because we are not seeing anything to replace the coalition, and the U.N. is reluctant to take that role.”
The U.N. political team also appears to have few fresh ideas and is voicing no preferences before the looming trip.
“We do not have high expectations,” said Ahmad Fawzi, an experienced U.N. hand who will be traveling as Mr. Brahimi’s spokesman. “Our mission is to help the Iraqi parties — both the Governing Council members and nonmembers — reach a political consensus on the next stage. … We are going to listen.”
U.N. officials have said all options — short of direct elections and the exceptionally unpopular caucuses — are still possible means to select the transitional administration.
The caucuses — 108 in all — were meant to ensure that each region would be represented accurately in the selection of the interim government, including particular ethnic and religious compositions. But Ayatollah al-Sistani rejected them, and others quickly agreed that the process was too complex and concentrated too much power in the hands of the coalition.
The State Department does not rule them out, but no one is loudly championing the idea.
One idea gathering credibility is the expansion of the existing Iraqi Governing Council, whose remaining 24 members were handpicked by U.S. administrator L. Paul Bremer. Adding members to strengthen the participation of Shi’ites, women and other underrepresented groups would lend more credibility to the group, but it might not be enough, some diplomats say.
Another possibility would be to convene a national congress, or a sort of “loya jirga,” to choose the representatives of the transitional administration.
“The idea of a national convention or even a limited caucus process is still very much alive,” said the State Department official. “The reason it has appeal is the ability to render or provide more legitimacy for the caretaker government that will evolve.”
Please read our comment policy before commenting.