Supporters of Gov. Mark Warner’s push for Virginia tax increases might want to hold off on celebrating the reports that some Republican members of the House of Delegates may capitulate on the budget. Two powerful Republican leaders — Sen. George Allen and Attorney General Jerry Kilgore, the likely Republican gubernatorial nominee next year — told The Washington Times yesterday that it would be a huge mistake for the GOP, and, more importantly, for the economic well-being of Virginians, to enact a tax increase.
Yesterday morning, The Washington Post ran a front-page story asserting that more than a dozen Republican members of the House are signaling support for tax increases, including increases in state and local sales taxes. Were this to occur, the major political beneficiaries would be the bipartisan team for tax increases led by Mr. Warner, a Democrat, and John Chichester, Republican chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. In the House, where Republicans hold 61 of the 100 seats, Speaker Bill Howell and the rest of the GOP leadership are strongly opposed to increasing sales and income taxes. The Post story also quoted several House Republicans suggesting that local sales taxes should increase and hinting that they might team up with the 37-member Democratic minority (there are two independents in the House) to push through a package of tax increases.
It’s no secret why some Republicans are getting nervous about the current budget stalemate. Over the past few weeks, the governor’s forces, together with state and local officials and public employees, have mounted a campaign to suggest that catastrophe will occur if the House doesn’t capitulate on taxes.
But if these House Republicans were to take such action they would be making a serious mistake. The state budget is up $6 billion — more than 25 percent — over the past five years. Even without Mr. Warner’s $1 billion in tax increases (or, for that matter, the $2.2 billion being pushed by Mr. Chichester and Senate Republicans), spending would increase by more than 11 percent over the next two years. The governor’s tax package would bring the increase to more than 13 percent.
Speaking to this newspaper yesterday, Messrs. Allen and Kilgore emphasized their opposition to tax increases and warned that they would jeopardize the economic recovery now underway. Mr. Allen also said Virginia lawmakers should learn from the landslide losses of the sales-tax increase referenda pushed by Mr. Warner in 2002. In short, Republicans who get rubber-legged on taxes may pay a high political price if they run for re-election next year.
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