At the heart of the debate over putting a major league baseball team in the District is this question: Can two teams co-exist and prosper at opposite ends of the Baltimore-Washington corridor?
A decade of rampant growth has pushed the population of the region far beyond that of California’s Bay area and made it much wealthier on a per capita basis than that of Chicago — markets that support two clubs each.
The Baltimore-Washington region is home to about 8million people, making it by far the largest metropolitan area in the country with only one major league team.
However, the Baltimore Orioles argue that a second team in the area would cripple the club economically, and their opposition has been the one constant in Washington’s 33-year pursuit of a team since the expansion Senators moved to Texas after the 1971 season.
Baseball boosters in Washington and Northern Virginia say the region can support two teams, especially given the demographic changes of recent years.
Now the debate is approaching a critical juncture.
District Mayor Anthony A. Williams recently proposed to fully fund with tax dollars a $340million ballpark on the grounds of 43-year-old RFK Stadium, satisfying the key demand of Major League Baseball. Baseball appears intent on making a decision on the relocation of the Montreal Expos by midsummer, two years behind schedule.
“Our proposal on this issue has been and remains very consistent: There will be no meaningful, detrimental effect on the Orioles from a Washington team whatsoever,” said Mark Tuohey, chairman of the D.C. Sports & Entertainment Commission. “Both franchises can and will thrive and prosper under this scenario.”
Orioles objection
But is it really that simple? Can the region support two baseball teams in the same passionate way that has made the Washington Redskins and Baltimore Ravens economic pillars of the NFL?
The Orioles and owner Peter Angelos, of course, say no, and there is anecdotal evidence to back their case.
Major League Baseball currently has four markets that support two teams: New York, Chicago, San Francisco/Oakland and Los Angeles. In each, there historically has been a strong club that dominates economically and in on-field success.
The New York Yankees dominate the Mets, just as the Chicago Cubs do the White Sox, the San Francisco Giants do the Oakland Athletics, and the Los Angeles Dodgers do the Anaheim Angels. Last year the White Sox and A’s drew fewer fans than the MLB average, and the Mets barely exceeded it.
The Yankees, Cubs, Giants and Dodgers have an average franchise value of $489 million, according to Forbes magazine, and have made 17 playoff appearances since 1995.
The Mets, White Sox, A’s and Angels have an average value of $279 million and eight total playoff appearances in the same span.
The exceptions to this domination — the 2000 Subway Series between the Mets and Yankees, the Angels’ World Series victory in 2002 and the A’s four straight playoff appearances, for example — are special to fans in part because they represent the rare success of an underdog long overshadowed by a more powerful, local rival.
The White Sox — despite a poorly located stadium, an unpopular owner in Jerry Reinsdorf and competing with the revered, lovable-loser Cubs — lead a stable, if unspectacular, existence. The team is often competitive, and according to Forbes, finished 2003 with an operating income of $12.8 million.
This is part of the Orioles’ argument.
“Mr. Angelos has made his position very clear for quite some time,” said Joe Foss, the Orioles’ chief operating officer. “Another franchise in this region would consign both to mediocrity.”
Angelos, now a member of MLB’s executive committee, has thrown his support behind Norfolk’s rival bid for the orphaned Expos.
Changing Washington
Leaders in the District and Northern Virginia, however, long have argued that Washington and Baltimore have little in common with any other metro area in the United States.
Washington and Baltimore do not share one media market, one primary business district or one central transportation network. They are distinct and growing cities, each with a different political culture — and a mutual dislike.
Angelos often equates the Washington-Baltimore region with the Bay area, using the economic tribulations of the A’s as evidence that a team should not be placed in Washington. However, the Washington and Baltimore area now is home to nearly 700,000 more people than San Francisco, Oakland, and San Jose combined.
Nielsen Media Research estimates there are 3.3 million TV households in the Baltimore-Washington area, nearly a million more than in San Francisco, Oakland and San Jose combined. That also is just 92,000 less than in Chicago, the country’s third-largest media market. The result is that the Orioles currently enjoy arguably more territorial freedom than any other large-market major league club, certainly more than any team on the East Coast.
The Orioles’ home market is listed as Baltimore city and county, plus Harford, Carroll, Howard and Anne Arundel counties. But Angelos unquestionably considers greater Washington to be a southern suburb in their territory.
“That’s really kind of a strange situation, isn’t it?” said Bob Sweeney, executive director of the Greater Washington Sports Alliance. The group, an affiliate of the Greater Washington Board of Trade, promotes sporting activity in the local area. “That’s not a relationship you really see elsewhere in this region.”
Competing studies
A favorite observation of baseball boosters in Northern Virginia is that a car could leave Philadelphia in weekday rush-hour traffic and easily reach Camden Yards before a car leaving for the stadium at the same time from Loudoun or western Fairfax counties.
The frustration expressed in that comment thrives in the District, as well.
Williams last week vowed not to attend any Orioles games until the District gets its own team, saying he was tired of Washington getting “dissed” in its pursuit of big-time sports.
The most heated battle in this Baltimore-Washington war, however, has been within the research community. Barely a year has gone by without a new study aiming to document the level of support for the Orioles in the Washington area or predict the impact a team placed in the District or Northern Virginia would have on the Baltimore club.
The Orioles say they derive at least 25 percent of their attendance and corporate support from greater Washington. The team operates a retail shop at Farragut Square and regularly conducts aggressive marketing efforts in and around Washington. The Virginia Baseball Stadium Authority three years ago challenged that view, releasing a study that estimated that the Orioles derive 13 percent of their attendance from greater Washington and just 5 percent from the District and Northern Virginia.
An update of that study from Kagan Media Appraisals last fall projected that rather than losing crucial local TV revenue if a team were placed in Washington, the Orioles instead would gain a healthy increase of 4 to 6 percent per year.
That projected increase is predicated on the arrival of another regional sports network (RSN) to compete against Comcast SportsNet should Washington get a baseball team and a vigorous battle for the distribution rights of every local pro team.
Already, Comcast SportsNet faces a difficult juggling act each spring with its live coverage of the games of the Orioles, Washington Capitals and Washington Wizards. Comcast is forced to rely heavily on over-the-air stations such as WBDC-TV (Channel 50) to meet demand.
“There’s definitely room in the Washington-Baltimore corridor for another RSN,” said John Mansell, analyst with Kagan Media Appraisals. “Most of your other major markets have two, and in many cases, three such networks. If Fox Sports Net didn’t step in and get involved in such an effort, I’m sure somebody else would.”
A study conducted last year by Williams’ cabinet similarly found a majority of District-based businesses holding seats at Camden Yards would either maintain or increase their spending with the Orioles should Washington get a team.
But for all the number-crunching, the only opinions that truly matter are those of MLB commissioner Bud Selig and the members of the relocation committee.
MLB officials are believed to have studied the Washington-Baltimore situation in great detail through the formal workings of the committee and consultant Corey Busch. But baseball has not publicly disclosed its findings, and trying to read the tea leaves has proved a thoroughly maddening exercise.
Selig talks often about his great sensitivity about hurting an existing franchise. But MLB president Bob DuPuy, Selig’s chief lieutenant, said Washington would “inevitably” get a team at some juncture. And Selig has said several times that Angelos will not be an obstacle to the relocation of the Expos to the Washington area.
“With this bid now from [Williams], the ball is now back in baseball’s court,” Sweeney said. “If [Angelos] really is the problem that’s holding this up, they’re going to have to say it.”
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