Liberal Republican Sen. Arlen Specter is using President Bush in his final pitch to GOP voters as he fends off a conservative challenger, who is predicting victory in tomorrow’s Pennsylvania Senate primary with exactly 51.7 percent of the vote.
In the closing days of what is shaping up as the closest nomination contest of his long career, Mr. Specter, 74, has been running TV ads showing him getting a warm embrace from Mr. Bush at a fund-raiser in Pittsburgh last week.
“I’m here to say it as plainly as I can,” Mr. Bush says in the ad. “Arlen Specter is the right man for the United States Senate. … I can count on this man. … He’s a firm ally when it matters.”
The White House and the Senate GOP leadership are solidly behind the pro-choice, pro-labor Mr. Specter, thinking that he is more likely than pro-life Rep. Patrick J. Toomey to carry the majority-Democrat state and help Republicans retain their slim 51-seat majority in the 100-member Senate
Mr. Toomey, outspent and outendorsed by Mr. Specter, nonetheless has made an unusually precise prediction, saying in a conference call with reporters last week that he will win with 51.7 percent.
“I’m just making a confident prediction,” Mr. Toomey said Thursday. “I think it’s going to be a close race, but I don’t think it’s going to be very late into the night before the outcome is clear.”
Asked how his boss could predict a figure so precisely, Toomey campaign manager Mark Dion said yesterday: “We have been doing our own tracking and turnout models.”
“We’ve got a major get-out-the-vote effort under way,” the 42-year-old Mr. Toomey told reporters yesterday while campaigning. “I really think it’s going to bring home the victory for us.”
But some political analysts say the weather — predicted to be bad in central and western Pennsylvania, but moderately good in the east — could affect turnout and have the final say, though neither side expressed much concern about the effect of weather on the outcome.
The U.S. Weather Service predicts 50 degrees and rain for less-populated central and northern areas, expected to be more hospitable to Mr. Toomey’s conservatism, and for Specter-friendly Pittsburgh in the west.
A somewhat nicer, 60-degree and partly sunny day is predicted for Philadelphia, which is heavily Democratic, and the surrounding counties, where Republicans do better.
“Toomey benefits in Pittsburgh from bad weather and a low turnout,” political analyst William J. Green said. “Regardless of weather, the true believers will come out in greater numbers than the moderates will come out for Specter.”
But Toomey spokesman Joe Sterns insists that the only elements that count are policies and voting records.
“We’re not reliant on the weather for victory,” Mr. Sterns said. “We are looking to a win in any circumstances.”
“Rain is not a big factor in a primary,” said Specter campaign manager Christopher Nicholas, who was with Mr. Specter in the Philadelphia area all weekend — including a rally with former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani yesterday.
But eastern Pennsylvania, where better weather is forecast, could bring home the bacon for Mr. Specter, especially in Montgomery County, one of Philadelphia’s “collar” counties. It’s the home county of attorney general candidate Bruce Castor and has more Republicans registered than any other county. Mr. Castor has been the Montgomery County district attorney since 2000.
“If Montgomery turns out big for Castor, the hometown boy, it will skew the turnout and help Specter,” said Mr. Green, who nonetheless is predicting that “Toomey wins in a whisper.”
Mr. Toomey’s supporters argue that if Sen. Rick Santorum, a pro-life Republican with a conservative voting record, could win statewide in Pennsylvania, so can Mr. Toomey, whose district includes part of Montgomery County.
In fact, Mr. Toomey’s district has many ethnic blue-collar, pro-life Democrats who once worked for Bethlehem Steel and Mack truck and who voted for him.
Democratic Rep. Joseph M. Hoeffel of Montgomery County is unopposed for his party’s U.S. Senate nomination.
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