Republicans seen retaining control of Senate

Democrats have some new opportunities to pick up Senate seats this year, but the Republicans still are favored to make net gains in the South, where President Bush and his party draw their strongest support.

Entering 2004, Republicans appeared to have a slam-dunk shot at strengthening their tenuous 51-seat hold on the Senate with a bonanza of five open Democratic seats in Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Carolina. But their lopsided Southern advantage has been offset to some degree by unexpected Republican retirements in Colorado and Oklahoma that have enlarged the Democrats’ targeted-for-takeover list.

Even so, veteran congressional campaign trackers say they think Republicans will keep control of the Senate in November and add a seat or two to their slim majority, although the battle for political dominance in the chamber clearly has tightened up in recent weeks.

“Our money is still on Republican retention of the Senate and certainly the House, but as Lewis Carroll’s Alice observed in Wonderland, things are getting ’curiouser and curiouser,’” writes Charlie Cook in his latest Cook Election Preview.

Stuart Rothenberg in his monthly Rothenberg Political Report said Democrats’ chances of taking control of the Senate have improved, but he predicts either “no net change or a GOP gain of a seat.”

Although Democratic Senate prospects have improved, “they still have a more difficult road ahead than do the Republicans. They need to win seven of the 10 most competitive Senate races to get to 50 seats and eight to get to 51, which they would need if Bush wins re-election,” Mr. Rothenberg said.

Of the eight targeted open races, Mr. Rothenberg sees two Democratic seats — in Georgia and South Carolina — leaning toward Republican takeovers and only one Republican seat held by retiring Illinois Sen. Peter G. Fitzgerald falling to the Democrats.

All the rest, plus the seats of Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Democratic Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota, are rated competitive, although Republicans have a slight mathematical edge. Four Democratic seats in Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina and South Dakota are “tossups,” he says, but only three Republican seats fall into that category: Alaska, Colorado and Oklahoma.

But that’s not the way that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) sees things.

“The Democrats have had one of the best recruiting classes in quite awhile, while Republicans have clearly failed to recruit top-tier candidates from Washington state to California,” DSCC spokesman Cara Morris. “If the elections were held today, public polling shows the Democrats would be at 52 seats.”

Among the five open Senate Democratic contests in the South:

• Georgia: Several Republicans are vying for the seat of retiring Sen. Zell Miller, a conservative Democrat who is campaigning for Mr. Bush. Rep. Johnny Isakson is the front-runner in a field of Republican candidates that includes Rep. Mac Collins and businessmen Al Bartell and Herman Cain, chief executive officer of Godfather’s Pizza. Rep. Denise L. Majette and businessman Cliff Oxford are seeking the Democratic nod. Most analysts see this as the Republicans’ strongest race and a likely pickup.

• Florida: Former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Mel Martinez, with strong White House backing, faces former Rep. Bill McCollum, who lost a previous Senate bid in 2000. Early polls show Mr. McCollum leading a crowded field that includes four other Republican candidates. Three Democrats battling to succeed retiring Sen. Bob Graham include Rep. Peter Deutsch, Miami-Dade Mayor Alex Penelas and former state Education Commissioner Betty Castor, the party’s front-runner.

• South Carolina: Another multicandidate Republican primary field complicates the party’s efforts to pick up retiring Democratic Sen. Ernest F. Hollings’ seat: Rep. Jim DeMint, former state Attorney General Charles Condon, real-estate developer Thomas Ravenel and former Gov. David Beasley. Democrats have united behind state Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum, but South Carolina is one of the most Republican states in the country “and any Democrat in a federal race has plenty of obstacles to overcome if Republicans unite,” Mr. Rothenberg says.

• North Carolina: The race is between Erskine Bowles, President Clinton’s former chief of staff who lost a 2002 Senate bid against Elizabeth Dole, and Rep. Richard M. Burr, a five-term congressman who won re-election in 2002 with 70 percent of the vote. Polls give Mr. Bowles, who has raised $3.3 million, the edge, but observers say the race for former Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Edwards’ seat is a tossup.

• Louisiana: The field of candidates vying for Sen. John B. Breaux’s seat suggests that this race might be settled in an end-of-the-year runoff under the state’s open-primary system. Republican Rep. David Vitter leads in the polls, but former Gov. Buddy Roemer, also a Republican, might enter the race. On the Democratic side are Rep. Chris John, state Treasurer John Kennedy and state Rep. Arthur Morrell.