LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The morning workouts have been solid. The racing surface hasn’t proved dull. The unusually large crowds aren’t bothersome.
Everything is going right for The Cliff’s Edge and Birdstone. That’s what worries trainer Nick Zito, but veteran observers view his skepticism as a sign to bet on him to win his third Kentucky Derby in Saturday’s 130th running.
Zito certainly has a pair of gifted runners, with The Cliff’s Edge the expected favorite when the field is determined today and Birdstone as one of the top choices. Although this is regarded as an open Derby with no standouts, Zito will be backed heavily by locals who adopted the New Yorker after he won with Strike the Gold (1991) and Go for Gin (1994).
“I have a great confidence level, but you have to wait as the week goes on,” he said. “Right now we’ve had a couple of good weeks, but you still have to go on to the last part. Once you get to Friday and then race day, you get to feel a lot more confident.”
The Cliff’s Edge wowed Churchill Downs fans with two fall stakes victories, including the Kentucky Gold Cup on Nov.29. However, the colt finished second in a minor stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb.21 and third in the Florida Derby on March13 at Gulfstream Park.
Naysayers dismissed The Cliff’s Edge, but the colt rebounded with a late victory in the Blue Grass Stakes on April10 at Keeneland. Suddenly, the Derby’s 11/4-mile distance doesn’t look too long for the son of 1996 Derby winner Grindstone and grandson of 1990 Derby champion Unbridled.
Birdstone also suffered traffic troubles when he steadied twice as the 3-to-5 favorite and finished fifth in the Lanes End Stakes on March20 at Turfway Park. A standout 2-year-old season gave Zito enough confidence to enter the colt in the Derby.
Zito lost Derby contender Eurosilver to an infection last month, so nothing is certain.
“The main thing is, we are through the workouts,” Zito said. “If they get in the gate Saturday, I’m just going to say ’Hallelujah’ and go from there. On April10, I didn’t know if I would be here even with The Cliff.
Full house
One of the top contenders could be prevented from entering the largest Derby field since 1984.
Two other horses must defect for Rock Hard Ten to reach the maximum 20-horse field. The colt is 22nd in graded stakes earnings that determine entry, but the Santa Anita Derby runner-up is feared because of two earlier victories. Rock Hard Ten has become a sleeper but might be idle until the Preakness Stakes on May 15 at Pimlico Race Course.
“If he does not get in, it may be a blessing,” trainer Jason Orman said. “If we don’t get in, I may … stay here. It would not make any sense to ship back to California and [then] go to Baltimore.”
’Dorky kid’
Attention nerds: pool your lunch money on Wimbledon. Trainer Bob Baffert said the Louisiana Derby winner is much better than his troubled fifth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby indicated. Wimbledon also gets jockey Jerry Bailey in Baffert’s bid for a fourth Derby victory.
“This is a big, old dude with a lot of natural, raw talent, like a big dorky kid,” Baffert said. “He’s getting it right now. He was just taken out of his style in the Santa Anita Derby. … His best style is to just lope along and then time his move.”
Down the stretch
Maryland’s Tapit will be the final Derby entrant to arrive today after training at his Northeast farm Monday. … Predicted thunderstorms for Saturday would produce the Derby’s first muddy track since 1994. … Defending Derby and Preakness winner Funny Cide will face Ten Most Wanted in the Pimlico Special on May 14.
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