Missile defense going astray?

When it comes to defending the nation, the Bush administration has properly focused on first things first — getting defenses into the field as soon as possible. But now it is spending money on a new program known as KEI — Kinetic Energy Interceptor, under a deeply flawed concept led by a program director who calls himself a missile defense skeptic.

For the past three years the Missile Defense Agency has avoided unproven technologies and concentrated on fielding ground-based interceptors — the technology most ready for deployment. That approach has paid off.

The first national missile defense interceptors will begin protecting the country in a few months, and sea-based interceptors will be operational on Navy ships next year. These defenses will be improved with block upgrades every two years.

But now the Missile Defense Agency is reallocating funds to a new program to develop a high-speed interceptor that is very risky, may not work, will cost an estimated $22 billion and will draw badly needed funds from planned improvements in the initial system. Worst of all, the KEI program is under Terry Little, a former Air Force official who allegedly said at a conference last year he is proud to be a liberal Democrat, missile defense skeptic, and opponent of weapons in space.

The KEI program originally was called “boost phase defense,” since its goal was to develop an interceptor so fast it can stop a missile in the boost phase. But now the program aspires to use its planned high-speed rocket for all phases of missile defense, replacing two brand-new rockets that have just been developed at considerable expense.

The best way to stop a missile is in its boost phase, the first 3 to 5 minutes after launch, when it is burning white hot and moving slowly. Hitting a hot, slow missile is much easier than a fast, cold one. Also, intercepting in the boost phase eliminates any multiple warheads and decoys before they can be released.

But boost-phase defense is also the most difficult. Because boost phase lasts only a few minutes, intercepting in that brief time requires being very close to the launch site, instantaneous reactions and a very fast interceptor that can catch its target in seconds.

This requires an interceptor twice as fast as any now in existence. But even if such a high-speed rocket can be built, the severe timelines make a boost phase intercept a very formidable task. There is no easy way to reach inland launch sites, except from space. Chinese and Russian sites are unreachable. Iran is a large country, with distant locations. The KEI concept seems to assume North Korea is the only potential threat, and even there a boost phase defense is challenging.

The plan is to develop a rocket for use on mobile land launchers or ships. Yet the planned rocket is more than 36 feet tall and would not fit in the Navy’s Aegis warships. A main argument for sea-based defense has been to take advantage of the existing fleet of nearly 70 Aegis cruisers and destroyers.

The current plan to put SM-3 standard missiles on up to 18 Aegis ships is on schedule. Designing a new interceptor that will not fit on them makes no sense. On the other hand, Japan has offered to share the cost of increasing the size and power of the SM-3 rocket by 50 percent, but not to make it so big it will not fit on Japan’s Aegis destroyers.

The real danger of the KEI program is the large amount of money it will drain from planned improvements to the national missile defense. A budget spreadsheet by the Missile Defense Agency shows the overall cost of the KEI program at more than $22 billion over 10 years. That leaves little to upgrade the SM-3 interceptor, or for space-based interceptors.

Probably the best solution to the challenge of boost phase defense is the “brilliant pebbles” concept developed 17 years ago by Lowell Wood of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The idea was to put small interceptors in orbit, where some always would be near any launch site.

Under Mr. Bush’s father, this concept was studied extensively, was found feasible, and much development work was done. Last year, that program was expected to receive $6 billion for further development over the next five years. That amount now has been cut to $843 million, with only $11 million for 2005. At the same time, more than $4.5 billion has been reallocated to the KEI program.

This is deja vu. For years, billions were spent on farfetched missile defense schemes that produced no useful results. Now, after finally getting its priorities straight, the Missile Defense Agency is going backward, planning to spend much of its future budget on a badly flawed concept.

With the White House and Pentagon preoccupied with Iraq and Afghanistan,Congress must cut spending on this Rube Goldberg scheme, press the Pentagon to reassess its priorities, and use the funds to improve defenses that actually work.

James T. Hackett is a contributing writer to The Washington Times and is based in San Diego.