TEL AVIV — Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s plan to dismantle Israeli settlements in the Gaza Strip appears headed for defeat in a referendum among members of his Likud Party scheduled for Sunday, according to several polls released yesterday.
A loss would rattle the foundations of Mr. Sharon’s government, forcing him to choose among several politically risky courses of action, such as moving up parliamentary elections, analysts said.
Sensing an impending rout, the prime minister cautioned about 193,000 voters that a “no” vote on the referendum could inflict diplomatic damage on Israel and even imperil a $9 billion loan guarantee package from the United States, the Ha’aretz daily reported on its Web site.
The scare tactic came in response to a poll published in the Yediot Ahronot newspaper yesterday that found 47 percent against leaving Gaza, 39 percent for the pullout and 14 percent undecided. A survey by Israel Radio found 51 percent opposed and 43 percent in support. The margin in a poll sponsored by the Ma’ariv newspaper was 45 percent to 42 percent.
In an interview with Israel Radio taped Wednesday night and broadcast yesterday morning, Mr. Sharon tried to equate opposition to the Gaza pullout with a vote of no-confidence in his government.
“I repeat, I am evacuating Gaza. It’s impossible to be in support of me but against the plan that I’m leading,” he said. “Whoever wants me must understand that this is the only way that I can fulfill my promise to bring security.”
Mr. Sharon argued that a defeat for the referendum would constitute a victory for Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and militant group Hamas, alluding to Palestinian anger over President Bush’s endorsement of the pullout plan and the U.S. decision to endorse key Israeli positions on a permanent Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.
Just two weeks ago, Mr. Sharon’s unilateral “disengagement” plan enjoyed a lead of more than 10 percentage points among Likud voters after a ringing endorsement from Mr. Bush at a White House summit with the prime minister.
Mr. Sharon wants to leave almost all of the Gaza Strip, where about 7,500 Israelis live in 20 settlements alongside about 1.3 million Palestinians.
Last night, a group of influential Orthodox rabbis from across Israel called on Likud voters to reject the Gaza pullout, saying it was forbidden to uproot Jewish settlements and synagogues, Ha’aretz reported.
Mr. Sharon has relied on media interviews and telephone pep talks with local party leaders, while most of the prominent Likud ministers have remained on the sidelines. For most of the lead-up to the referendum, Mr. Sharon and his supporters have abandoned the streets to opposition campaigners.
“It’s clearly an air war versus a ground war,” said Ron Dermer, an Israeli pollster. Mr. Sharon “is very popular, but his plan is not popular.”
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